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Who's inside and who's out of the next Dem debates?




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                  Democratic candidates take the stage for the first of the party's primary debates ahead of the 2020 elections. Joe Raedle / Getty Images </p>
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2020 Democratic Debates

] One tight run is on for the 20th and last july debate slot, while a more exclusive group of democrats closes in september debate.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) attempted to make a splash in June and urged former Vice President Joe Biden to "pass pockets" el "to younger democrats – but attacks had little influence, and Swalwell is now in danger of missing the next round of debates in July and being replaced by montana governor Steve Bullock, who missed the debate in June.

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meanwhile former housing and urban development secretary Julián Castro has aligned closely to the back of the primary package, but his splash in last week's debate has gone a long way towards ensuring he can do September debate, when the qualification thresholds increase significantly and constitute an existential threat to many campaigns. Castro told MSNBC's Rachel Maddow on Tuesday that he raised $ 1 million in the days following the debate and that his campaign had about 116,000 donors – just shy of September's 130,000 donor threshold by several months yet. [19659008] Currently, 21 candidates have passed a modest threshold for the July debate, either by beating 1 percent in three qualifying polls or getting 65,000 donors. It is yet another candidate than the Democratic National Committee has said it will allow on the stage during the two nights, which means someone should cut.

DNC's tie-breakers prioritize candidates who hit both polls and financial thresholds, followed by candidates who have only voting benchmark, sorted by poll average, and then candidates who hit only donor mark

14 candidates have crossed both thresholds, according to a POLITICO analysis, which almost guarantees their place on the stage on June 30 or June 31. Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto R&D, Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

It leaves seven candidates who have only crossed the voting threshold without a sure understanding of a debate phase lectern. Some are marginally better than others: John Delaney, John Hickenlooper and Tim Ryan all have a polling average of just over 1 percentage point, meaning they stand in front of the other candidates.

But four Democrats are sitting at a voting average of only 1 percent, with only three slots giving them: Michael Bennet, Bullock, Bill de Blasio and Swalwell.

Because they are exactly tied to a poll average, the next tiebreaker is the number of qualified polls they have scored. Swalwell has only reached the 1% mark in three qualifying polls. Bullock is in five polls, Bennet is in six polls, and the Blasio has eight.

Seth Moulton, Wayne Messam, Mike Gravel and Joe Sestak have not crossed the threshold and no one seems to make the stage. But roster for these debates is not yet contained; Investigations from qualifying polls published no later than July 16 count.

It is also not clear how the discussion phase will be suspended when the 20 candidates remaining on the scene are confirmed. NBC News, DNC's media debut for the first debate, distributed a random and diligent group of high-quality graduates and a group of low-skilled candidates between the two nights of their debates. CNN, hosting the debate in July, did not respond to a request from POLITICO about how phases will be set. DNC & # 39; refused to answer questions at the stages.

These July debates may be the last best chance for some lesser-known candidates to embark on their campaigns and make the next round in September.

Qualification for a few autumn debates in September and October contains needed demands. Instead of hitting a donor threshold or a reconciliation threshold, candidates need to beat each other – and both will be higher: 2 percent in four qualifying polls and 130,000 unique donors.

It is expected to vigorously celebrate the field, with some candidates sticking to 1 percent in polls, and others are currently struggling to gather even half of the 130,000 donor mark. But several candidates have already blocked places by hitting both thresholds, according to POLITICO's analysis: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders and Warren.

The analysis includes a poll from ABC News / Washington Post, published Tuesday. Formerly published ABC / Post polls were rejected by DNC from counting because they asked an open question about who respondents supported instead of reading a list of candidates. But the new vote released on Tuesday had both an open question and one with a list of candidates, and POLITICO received a note sent by DNC to campaigns that confirmed the issue of the ABC / Post issue where the candidates would count.

Other candidates, because now there is on the bubble without guarantees to make the stage. Both O & # 39; Rourke and Yang have passed the new donor threshold but have not yet hit four qualifications. Rourke is currently in two polls, while Yang has not yet picked up his first.

Three other candidates – Castro, Booker and Klobuchar – have not publicly stated that they have hit the donor market yet, but they indicated they are close to it and they each have at least one vote. Booker and Klobuchar each have three polls, while Castro has one.

Gabbard is approaching 93,000 donors, but has not hit 2 percent in any qualifying polls.

And as for everyone else? The rest of the democratic field faces a very steep rise to come to the fall events – and many of them expect something big to change soon if they are to make that stage.


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