Before we explain why, please be aware that Apple has not released any official information and has not responded to a request for comment. What we do know, though, is that the iPhone has certainly been delayed “a few weeks” from its usual September timeline. Even before, we knew that the COVID-19 outbreak forced suppliers in China to shut down or operate on limited capacity. This not only affected Apple’s inventory in September, but it will also affect sales. Apple also closed its U.S. retail stores, though some have now reopened in limited ways.
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Because Apple’s iPhone events usually take place in mid-September after Labor Day, a “few weeks” delay pushes us into October territory. And with today’s presses already planned, it’s even more unlikely that Apple will hold two events within the same month.
As for why we chose a date in early to mid-October, there are a few reasons. Japanese financial news outlet Nikkei Asian Review reported that Apple will begin production of its 5G iPhones in mid-September, which means products are coming down the pipeline faster than later. Apple will also have enough devices to move in time for the holiday season and Black Friday. Finally, it’s in Apple’s best interest to choose a date when the likelihood of being swallowed up by even bigger news is low. While no day in 2020 is guaranteed to be a slow news day, the US presidential election will be held on November 3 and will really get hot in the second half of October.
It leaves us with the first two weeks of October, and because Apple likes to hold its events on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, it gives us October 6th, 7th, 13th and 14th. Out of these dates, we are partial to October 13th and 14th. ourselves, so that’s what we go with.
Again, this is just our well-educated guess. Apple has so far said nothing, and many things can change for a penny (hey, have you met 2020?). Tell us in the comments below if you think these dates are likely or if Apple chooses a different date altogether.