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What early voting can (and can not) tell us about the election



Democratic strategists believe the early figures show a 2020 voter who is bigger, younger and more diverse than in 2016 – and not just shifting votes that would otherwise have arrived on election day.

The big picture: Early voting data signals strong democratic enthusiasm in key battlefield states. But strategists on both sides say Republicans could still overcome that advantage with an increase in personal turnout on election day.

Details: So far, first-time and rare Democratic voters are beating registered Republicans by larger margins than in 2016, according to data from TargetSmart, a Democratic firm.

  • “In North Carolina, nearly 1
    in 5 ballots so far come from those who did not vote in 2016,” said Greg Speed, president of America Votes.
  • 24.9 million votes have already been cast. In key states such as Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Iowa, more than a quarter of the total number of votes cast in 2016 have already been received.
  • More than six times as many Democrats have voted than at the same time in 2016 – and Republicans’ early vote has nearly quadrupled.

Pennsylvania and Florida is the key to seeing.

  • 59% of first-time voters who have already voted in Pennsylvania are registered Democrats compared to the only 15% who are registered Republicans. First-time Democratic voters hardly voted for Republicans (40% to 38%) at this time in 2016.
  • In Florida, registered Democrats are leading over registered Republicans among first-time voters has grown by nearly 10 percentage points compared to 2016.

What to see: 2020 is a choice like no other, and comparisons with 2016 must be taken with a grain of salt.

  • “I can not help but look at these data with Trump’s lens, which tells Republicans so consistently that the vote per. Mail is a scam, ”Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Michael Bloomberg’s computer company Hawkfish, told Axios. “This mistrust – it appears from these data.”
  • “There’s less urgency for Republicans to vote early,” said Mike Meyers, a Republican and president of TargetPoint Consulting.

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