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Weekend Box Prediction: In the Heights and Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

Photo credits: Warner Bros. / Alice Brooks (“In the Heights”); Sony Pictures / Peter Menzies Jr. (“Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway”)

After two weekends with returning moviegoers excited and scared of franchise sequels, this weekend will provide a shift in pace with lighter fare from the tandem of In the heights and Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway.

The headliner for the upcoming frame is widely expected to be the filmed adaptation of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Broadway play, which won four Tony Awards (including Best Musical) in 2008. Since then, Miranda has continued with even more widespread acclaim with the resounding smash success of Hamilton as a Broadway play and in the heart of the pandemic last summer a streaming release on Disney +.

In the heights hopes to exploit not only the profile and popularity of Miranda and his work’s influence on popular culture over the past decade, but also the resurgent demand for joint event films. This adaptation was once scheduled for theatrical release in the summer of 2020, before delays caused by the pandemic changed Warner Bros.’s plans. Now, the film finally hits theaters in the middle of the summer of 2021’s rebound, while also debuting the same day as a streaming option for HBO Max subscribers.

The latter are par for the course when it comes to Warner Bros. releases in 2021 and is again a key factor to note when predicting or projecting expectations for In the heights‘ticket office potential. The law of being an audience member with themes relevant to the audience with many cultural backgrounds comes from director Jon M. Chu. He was a former captain Crazy rich Asians for its break-box office run in 2018.

A similarly strong appeal to undervalued audiences is the motivating factor in bullish hopes Heights‘opening up and long-term potential as the filmmaker’s revival develops in the late stages of the pandemic. Movies like Godzilla vs. Kong (67 percent), Tom & Jerry (67 percent), The unholy (59 percent), last week Magician threequel (71 percent) and A Quiet Place, Part II (56 percent) have been driven by largely non-Caucasian audiences during their openings, with almost all meeting or exceeding the ceilings of their respective box office expectations. A varied turnout, led by the Latinx community, for Heights should be a no-brainer.

Strengthening pre-release hype is a recent Fandango survey indicating that 96 percent of 1,300-plus moviegoers will do Heights their first trip back to cinemas since the beginning of the pandemic. As for the recent history of the genres, musicals like The greatest showman and La La Land has shown the renewed appeal of melody-driven narratives on the big screen after being relatively dormant for a number of years.

Social media activity has grown steadily in recent weeks thanks to targeted online and traditional ad campaigns targeting viewers of broadcast events such as the Oscars, Saturday Night Live‘s highly rated Elon Musk-hosted episode and the MTV Movie & TV Awards – three programs that account for a wide range of demographics. The latest trailers that released the film’s official YouTube page have generated over 11 million views since their launch two months ago, which equates to the first trailer count since live over a year ago.

Heights not only has timing in its favor as moviegoers are increasingly ready to return to cinemas and experience a joyous tale with friends and family, it has also been recognized on the back with a 97 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from this release.

The only reasons to remain somewhat moderate in expectations are the aforementioned hybrid release pattern and the fact that this outside of Miranda’s most off-screen attachment and fans of the original stage production is an original film without a built-in mainstream audience to push the opening figures into the stratosphere. The goal, however, is that the film’s universal appeal generates long legs in the box office.

Warner Bros. the film releases an estimated 3,400 locations this weekend, including IMAX, PLFs and drive-ins. The opening begins with a preview of Thursday night, which counts as part of Friday’s gross. The studio does not officially deliver expectations over the weekend, but our internal tracking before sales indicates trends in line with Cruella and the recent Magician picture on the same points prior to Friday’s business.

Another title that is often delayed during the pandemic has been Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway, without a doubt one of the most mixed release dates of the past year. As recently as last month, it was scheduled to open for Father’s Day weekend on June 18 (after moving up from an August date). Now the family-run sequel gets a head start on the upcoming holiday weekend (not to mention Disney’s only streaming release of Pixars Luca on the 18th) by counter-programming the big musical release with a film that appeals to parents and young children.

The first Peter the rabbit was a dormant hit domestic back in 2018 and earned an opening weekend of $ 25 million for a total total of $ 115.3 million – part of a total $ 351.5 million global move.

Rabbit 2 began its staggered rollout overseas back in March with a $ 2.1 million debut in Australia, followed by a $ 6.5 million launch in the UK last month. The latter was the market’s best debut of any film during the pandemic outside Tenet, although the franchise is especially popular in the home country. Overall, The Runaway has raised $ 46.1 million internationally this weekend.

Family-centric films have been ironically scarce early in the summer, even after they delivered respectable supporting beams for exhibition during the worst months of the pandemic, when many theaters closed. In his favor now though Rabbit 2 has suffered in the way of direct competition until Universal delivers The Boss Baby 2: Family Business as a hybrid release in early July. Reviews are generally positive for the genre at 73 percent at the moment.

Sony distributes The Runaway begins Thursday afternoon at. 16 with preview in approximately 2,600 domestic theaters. They expect a weekend draw between $ 8 million and $ 10 million, though our internal models are a little more optimistic given the previously mentioned success of films like Tom & Jerry and Croods: A new age during the pandemic on top of the empty market for kid-friendly movies right now while schools are out in the summer. The only almost relevant comparison, last week Spirit Untamed, gives trends before sales to Run away which is almost twice as big as the movie in many markets.

The key for both open openers to hit or exceed forecasts will ultimately be in the hands of the walk-up business – and in Heights‘case, strong word of mouth that extends beyond the fan base, which is likely to be most prominent in major cities and on the coasts. The film’s 2 hours and 23 minutes of driving time can also be a minor factor to look at, especially in regional areas where seating capacity and operating time are still more limited than others.

On the team front The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It will likely see a sharp drop as its own studio hands over many premium monitors to In the heights. With $ 24.1 million last weekend, somewhat frontloaded for Friday’s first business, the horror franchise picture represented the second-best Warner Bros. debut of the pandemic so far (only subsequently) Godzilla vs. Kong). It will be in a much closer race for third place this weekend as A Quiet Place, Part II will be hit by a loss of remaining premium monitors in its third frame, but not close to the degree of Magician.

Meanwhile, Gravita’s Ventures is opening Dronningbier 500 locations while Hidden Empire Film Group distributes The house next door: Meet the blacks 2 at about 450 venues, according to estimates from the Showtime Dashboard. Both are expected to be moderate artists, but if one has a chance to crack the top ten, it will be Dronningbier.

Lionsgate will also sneak in with previews Hitmans Bodyguard’s Wife in an unconfirmed number of places Friday night, but it is unknown if or when gross will be reported or lobbed in next week’s Wednesday debut when the picture goes wide.

This weekend vs. last weekend

Box office projects in this weekend’s top ten films will increase between 3 and 23 percent from last weekend’s three-day move of $ 65.5 million, which was the second-best top ten cume in the pandemic so far.

As of this coming weekend, an estimated 76 percent of North American cinemas will be open, representing 94 percent coverage of the domestic ticket market.

Opening of weekend areas

In the heights: $ 20 – 30 million
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway: $ 12 – 18 million

Weekend forecast

Movie Distributor 3-day weekend forecast Projected domestically in total for Sunday 13 June Number of placements % Change from last week
In the heights Warner Bros. Pictures $ 24,200,000 $ 24,200,000 ~ 3,400 NEW
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway Sony Pictures / Columbia $ 13,200,000 $ 13,200,000 3,346 NEW
A Quiet Place, Part II Paramount Pictures $ 10,500,000 $ 107,900,000 3,515 -46%
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Warner Bros. Pictures $ 9,400,000 $ 43,000,000 ~ 3,150 -61%
Cruella Walt Disney Pictures $ 7,000,000 $ 56,300,000 3,307 -36%
Spirit Untamed Universal images $ 3,000,000 $ 11,500,000 3,394 -51%
Man’s anger Published by United Artists $ 700,000 $ 26,100,000 1,207 -45%
Raya and the last dragon Walt Disney Pictures $ 575,000 $ 54,500,000 559 -55%
Spiral: From Saw Book Lionsgate $ 525,000 $ 22,900,000 1,572 th most common -41%
Godzilla vs. Kong Warner Bros. Pictures $ 300,000 $ 99,800,000 ~ 725 -42%

All forecasts are subject to change before the first confirmation of Thursday’s preview or Friday estimates from studies or alternative sources.

Theater counts are updated as confirmed by studies.

Contact Shawn Robbins for press and media inquiries

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