I know he’s recently been busy trying to convince judges that Facebook is a state actor and urging the MAGA crowds to find out which cop shot Ashli Babbitt, but Trump should really cut some time to bend over these numbers. The death toll from the virus could be as much as 50 percent higher, if not for the success of Operation Warp Speed, according to a model published yesterday by the Commonwealth Fund.
And while deaths are always the number that people put the most emphasis on, the other data here is just as striking. ONE lot of non-fatal human misery was averted by the vaccines.
Unfortunately, there is still much more to come with the national vaccination effort.
The expected increase in May would have been worse than even the worst of the winter wave per. This model, and we can only guess what new peak would have been reached after the proliferation of the Delta variant over the last month. The same model, meanwhile, estimates that 1.25 million admissions and more than 25 million (!) New cases would have occurred if not for the vaccination program. Some meaningful percentage of these people would have had “long COVID”, possibly little to this day, and many may have lost brain tissue to the disease. The infections that did not happen also enabled hospitals to provide proper care to those who actually got the disease since January. Imagine the results in some of the touch-and-go cases where lives were saved if ERs had been overwhelmed.
This would not have happened without the vaccines either. Well … I guess so power has, but it would have been dangerous for an unvaccinated America to deworm due to fatigue in the pandemic. It’s much safer to do it in a world where Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson came through:
The proportion of Americans who wore a mask at least once during the past week while away from home dropped to 68 percent last month, the lowest number of the pandemic – although this number was not driven by vaccinated people , still masking at a 77 percent cut. It is the unvaccinated who throw caution against the wind, with only 38 percent wearing masks. It is backwards as far as science goes, but according to another poll we have seen during the pandemic, it shows that people who are willing to take risks with the virus by not wearing masks are also willing to take risks with it. by not getting vaccinated. Risk takers, meanwhile, are more likely to be waxed and to keep masking. The result: Two America, where one takes too many precautions and the other does not take enough.
As I say, we are not yet done with human misery that can be avoided. Researchers are looking at the map of the United States and identifying which parts are likely to become breeding grounds for a new wave and possibly a new variant:
The analysis from researchers at Georgetown University identified 30 clusters of counties with low vaccination rates and significant population sizes. The five most significant of these clusters are scattered over large swaths in the southeastern United States and a smaller part in the Midwest.
The five clusters are largely in parts of eight states, starting in eastern Georgia and extending west to Texas and north to southern Missouri. The clusters also include parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee and consist of mostly smaller counties, but also cities such as Montgomery, Alabama; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Amarillo, Texas …
The five most significant clusters together comprise more than 15 million people. Of these, only 27.9% are fully vaccinated – far lower than the national rate of 47.6%.
All eight of these states are red unless you want to count Georgia as blue because it tipped ever so slightly to Democrats in the last national election. Eight of the 10 states that have seen hospitalizations increase by more than 20 percent over the past two weeks are also red. (And one of the two blues, Vermont, has a total of five admissions across the country.) Hopefully, there is enough immunity, vaccine, and natural throughout the population to keep the spread down in these hot-spot “clusters.” The next month will tell us a lot.