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UFC 264 Predictions – Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3: Fight card, odds, prelims, expert picks

On Saturday night, Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier will settle a rivalry dating back to 2014 when they fight at UFC 264. The third fight between pairs of lightweight headlines action from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The Giants first met in 2014 on McGregor’s rise to superstardom when the Irishman scored a first-round TKO by Poirier, who was also a rising challenger in the featherweight division at the time. Then the two seven years later in January in the lightweight division met with Poirier tonight the result with a separate TKO in the second round. Now they seem to be putting the finishing touches on this rivalry in arguably the biggest PPV event of the year.

There are many more sets of action for the card, including a major welterweight co-main event between former welterweight candidates, Stephen Thompson and Gilbert Burns, as well as the return of the controversial former NFL star Greg Hardy, who takes on Tai Tuivasa in a heavyweight collision.


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With so much going on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full match card with the latest odds from William Hill Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and choices for the PPV part of the festivities.

UFC 264 match cards, odds

  • Dustin Poirier -125 vs. Conor McGregor +105, lightweight
  • Stephen Thompson -160 vs. Gilbert Burns +135, welterweight
  • Tai Tuivasa -150 vs. Greg Hardy +125, heavyweight
  • Irene Aldana -120 vs. Yana Kunitskaya +100, women’s bantamweight
  • Sean O’Malley -900 vs. Kris Moutinho +600, bantamweight
  • Max Griffin -200 against Carlos Condit +170, welterweight
  • Michel Pereira -180 vs. Niko Price +155, welterweight
  • Dricus Du Plessis -120 vs. Trevin Giles +100, middleweight
  • Ilia Topuria -230 vs. Ryan Hall +190, featherweight
  • Jennifer Maia -195 vs. Jessica Eye +165, woman’s flight weight
  • Brad Tavares -170 vs. Omari Akhmedov +145, middleweight
  • Zhalgas Zhumaglov -310 vs. Jerome Rivera +250, flight weight
  • Alen Amedovski -130 vs. Hu Yaozong +110, middleweight

With such a massive main event in print, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and choices for the main card. Here are your choice producers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat Sports Writer), Brian Campbell (Combat Sports Writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Matthew Coca (producer), Jack Crosby (editor), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor) ).

UFC 264 selections, predictions

McGregor vs. Poirier Pear tree Pear tree Pear tree Pear tree Pear tree
Thompson Vs. Burns Burns Thompson Thompson Burns Thompson
Tuivasa vs. Hardy Tuivasa Tuivasa Tuivasa Tuivasa Tuivasa
Aldana vs. Kunitskaya Kunitskaya Kunitskaya Aldana Kunitskaya Kunitskaya
O’Malley vs. Moutinho O’Malley O’Malley O’Malley O’Malley O’Malley
Records so far (2021) 23-11 22-12 23-11 20-13 17-17

Campbell on why Poirier wins: The harsh reality for McGregor to get into their trilogy is that Poirier has evolved to the level where he might be better than the “infamous” in every category lacking one-punch power. Whatever strategy McGregor brings to the table, Poirier showed in the rematch that he was able to augment him with a midfield adjustment. Although McGregor had moments in their rematch while going down his opponent with punches, Poirier also showed the ease with which he can take McGregor down if he were to go in that direction. As always, Poirier must go through the early storm of the opening round when McGregor is eternally dangerous. But Poirier is too well-rounded and battle-tested to allow McGregor’s style with a note to be enough at this elite level.

Brookhouse on why Poirier wins: McGregor is always a shot away from winning a match and it is no different against Poirier. Beyond this ability to catch Poirier with a big shot, McGregor does not seem to have many paths to victory here. Poirier is a more complete mixed martial arts artist and has painted and evolved, while McGregor has played with boxing, retirement and crime. It’s a lot to ask that McGregor has completed his style completely in six months of training – minus the day off due to the loss in knockout in January – meaning his stance will still be wide open for leg kicks. McGregor is also not up to Poirier’s level in cardio, and everyone knows his commitments on the ground, which is clear from his new stance that he “only counts knockouts” on his record and his statement that Poirier would be a “dusty b – – “if he goes after a removal. There are just too many ways for Poirier to win and too few for McGregor that the election feels obvious.

Campbell on why Burns wins: Both warriors have been at the welterweight title level and come up short, and each one is looking for a shot to get into the overall title picture again. Because of that, it’s hard not to imagine Thompson and Burns both coming up with the pressure they hope to make a statement. That’s the potential that could be dangerous for the 38-year-old Thompson given how explosive Burns has become during his late career re-flare to a well-rounded fighter. Burns came up short against champion Kamaru Usman in February, but landed some major strikes early. Catching “Wonderboy” won’t be easy and will take patience, but Burns has the cardio to push an aggressive pace and create enough chaos to open a concluding strike.

Brookhouse on why Thompson wins: Burns has become a dangerous welterweight and came very close to taking the 170-pound title from Kamaru Usman. However, Thompson creates a different kind of puzzle with timing and angles that are almost completely unique in the division. In a three-round match, Burns may end up taking a round to figure out how to deal with these stylistic strangeness, which already puts him in a desperate situation. Thompson should be able to avoid taking a killshot from Burns and just designate the Brazilian to score a decision win and creep a little closer to a final title shot.

Brookhouse on why Tuivasa wins: Once you find out why Tuivasa wins, you can start with Hardy’s heart problems, which have been a recurring problem in his career. Tuivasa is a good fighter and Hardy is not on par with the men who have beaten him. With a steady diet of leg kicks and some pace pushing, Tuivasa should be able to finish an exhausted Hardy. It is worth remembering that Tuivasa went hard three rounds with Andrei Arlovski, so we have seen that he has the ability to go all 15 without fading. Hardy has repeatedly had trouble going a hard five.

Who wins Poirier vs. McGregor 3? And which fighter is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now for detailed top picks at UFC 264, all from the UFC insider who has raised nearly $ 9,500 on MMA picks over the past year, and find out.

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