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U.S. Corn Acreage Way Above Trade Expectations, Market Falls, USDA / WASDE Says



DES MOINES, Iowa – The USDA sees the US 2019 corn acreage nearly unchanged from its March estimate, according to its June Acreage Report released Friday.

As a result, the corn market dropped, while the soybean market moved up 11 ¢ per bushel, following the report at 11:00 am CT.

At Midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 12 1/4 ¢ lower at $ 4.33. Dec. corn futures are 12 3/4 ¢ lower at $ 4.38 1/4.

August soybean futures are 10 1/4 ¢ higher at $ 9.04. November soybean futures are 8 3/4 ¢ higher at $ 9.21.

September wheat futures are 14 1/2 ¢ lower at $ 5.32 1/4.

July soymeal futures are $ 0.30 per short ton lower at $ 31

2.90. July soy oil futures are $ 0.31 higher at 28.24 ¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $ 0.04 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 106 points higher.

U.S. 2019 Planting Report

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2019 corn acreage at 91.7 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 86.7 million and the USDA's 2018 June estimate of 92.8 million.

For soybeans, the USDA is seen 2019 acreage at 80.0 million vs. the trade-expectation of 84.4 million and the USDA's 2018 June estimate of 89.2 million.

All Wheat acreage estimate is pegged at 45.6 million vs. the trade-expectation of 45.67 million and the USDA's June 2018 estimate of 45.8 million.

USDA 2019 Planting Report
(in million bushels) USDA June 2019 Avg. Trade Estimate USDA March
Corn 91.7 million 86.7 million 92.8 million
Soybeans 80.0 million 84.4 million 84.6 million
Wheat 45.6 million 45.7 million 45.8 million

Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. June 1 corn stocks at 5,202 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 5.34 billion and the USDA's year ago stocks estimate of 5.305 billion.

For soybeans, the USDA sees June 1 stocks at 1,790 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.86 billion and the USDA's 2018 estimate or 1.21 billion.
USDA pegged the U.S. wheat stocks, as of June 1, at 1,072 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.10 billion and the USDA's 2018 estimate or 1.099 billion.

USDA 2019 Quarterly Grains Stocks Report
in million acres USDA June 2019 Avg. Trade estimate USDA Last Year
Corn 5.202 billion 5,349 bill. 5,305 bill.
Soybeans 1,790 trillion 1,861 bill. 1,219 bill.
All Wheat 1,072 billion 1.10 bill. 1,099 bill.

Trade Reaction

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that USDA gave the markets another shocker, today.

"Everyone was looking for more beans and less corn and got exactly the opposite. That is why the big reaction, and it is perfectly understandable. A 25 cent range in corn in less than 3 minutes is something. No one understands the corn planted and harvested area, as USDA had not shown that type of progress in the weekly data. The stocks reports are child friendly, but the planted area is the headline and most likely not in a good way for a lot of traders and brokers. These are wild numbers. I have one farmer who has been counting that a lot of corn got planted early in the month, but even so, these numbers are hard to believe, ”Scoville says.

Will Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, say that the USDA corn acreage estimate is counting.

"Farmers were clearly incentivized to plant corn in order to capture government benefits contingent on getting something into the ground this season. Look for the July WASDE to slightly improved the corn balance sheet and to tighten the soybean balance sheet perhaps more than was anticipated prior to today's acreage report, "Gilbertie says.

Gilbert adds, "Wheat disappearance reflects the healthy rate of wheat exports we've seen so far this year."


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