قالب وردپرس درنا توس
Home https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ World https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ Two wrenches in Washington's oil sanctions against Venezuela: China and Russia

Two wrenches in Washington's oil sanctions against Venezuela: China and Russia



O On Monday, the United States imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports in an attempt to press authoritarian president Nicolas Maduro. While US sanctions may be able to do the trick and pave the way for a stable solution to the crisis, there are complicating factors: China and Russia.

Although China may be less willing to subsidize an unstable Maduro than in previous years, it is no less interested in the country's oil and the $ 20 billion due to current investments. Russia also remains heavily invested in Maduro's government as a result of billions of dollars in arms trade.

If China and Russia become some of the only countries that Venezuela can export oil, they are giving huge leverage to these countries over Caracas.

It also gives China or Russia the freedom to potentially take control of parts of the country's oil industry. In fact, Sinovesa offers a clear model for this event. The company, jointly owned by a Chinese state-owned company and a subsidiary of the Venezuelan national oil monopoly PDVSA, has successfully increased production and profitability.

There is no reason to believe that Maduro, in an attempt to pay loans, would not allow Beijing or Moscow to take more control of oil production.

Another possibility stems from the reality that the new sanctions will significantly reduce oil revenues Venezuela currently depends on paying its huge debt to Russia and China.

The fall of it could be quite complicated because of Venezuela's security and assets.

As Ellen R. Wald points out in Forbes, Citgo, a Venezuelan-owned refinery in the United States, is a guarantee for Venezuela's debt to the Russian oil company Rosneft. If new sanctions mean that Maduro's government is unable to repay its loans, Rosneft could try to take partial ownership of Citgo, as 49.9 percent of its shares are currently collateralised against loans to Russia.

It would probably create a fight between the United States and Russia on the grounds that Russian control of Citgo would constitute a national security crisis that potentially provokes conflict.

Finally, as I explained Friday, US efforts to expel Maduro ought to prove success and a new administration moves to void agreements concluded with China and Russia, these countries are likely to exercise the United States' commitment as a part of a broader strategy to suppress their power. It would not only complicate existing negotiations ̵

1; for example, trade war negotiations with Beijing – but probably escalate tensions.

As the United States takes another step into the economic and diplomatic clutter in Venezuela, Washington must recognize that it is not the only major player worldwide with interests in Latin America. China and Russia have several billion dollar interests in Venezuela, and they want to make good on their investment – not what Washington thinks will lead to stability or good for Venezuelan people.


Source link