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Turkey's lira is swooning again – just in time for elections



Analysts who spoke to CNBC agreed that Erdogan is unlikely to suffer a big upset in this year's vote. He has continuously held the post of either prime minister or president since 2003.

That said, opposition parties are working together more effectively than in the past, analysts say. For example, the People's Democratic Party is an order of several races in order to help candidates from a brother opposition bloc led by two others, the Republican People's Party and the Good Party.

The closest contests, polls show, will be in Ankara and Istanbul, cities that Erdogan's AKP has held for 25 years.

"If the AKP is released to an opposition party challenger, it will be a symbolic indication that the ruling party is struggling to maintain its appeal with the urban elite," said Emily Hawthorne, an analyst at risk consulting firm Stratfor.

Agathe Demarais, principal European economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said she believes a defeat for AKP in Turkey's political and commercial hubs is "unlikely at this point." [1

9659002] But she said that if AKP is released Istanbul and Ankara, "financial markets would react negatively and the lira would depreciate sharply against the US dollar and the euro, possibly triggering another currency crash."

Me Meanwhile, Ash of Bluebay Asset Management is seen as "high probability" that the AKP releases Ankara, putting the odds at 50-50. He estimated just 30 percent chance that Erdogan's party loosens Istanbul.


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