The president, who has a preference for great offers, has publicly indicated that an agreement is on his agenda and adds a threat if it does not.
"Maybe we can negotiate another deal and add China and others, or maybe we can't," said Trump, and mentioned his decision to the
Treaty during his January address to the nation. "In that case, we will spread and extract everyone else far."
The White House is conducting intense talks to develop opportunities for the president to commit to pursue such an agreement and build another nuclear pact, the new START Treaty, which expires in 2021, said several White House officials to CNN.
"The President made it clear that he believes that arms control should include Russia and China and should include all weapons, all warheads, all the missiles," a senior white house official said. "We have an ambition to give the President's choice as soon as possible to give him as much space as possible on the calendar."
"This is something no administration has tried," said the senior official. "But I would argue that no administration has tried what [Trump] tried with North Korea for example."
Concerns about triggering an arms race
But the scale of these ambitions, Trump's previous criticism of New START as a "bad deal" and the role of national security advisor John Bolton ̵
"The only reason you educate China is if you have no intention of extending the new START treaty," said Alexandra Bell, senior director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
Bell and other weapons management experts are concerned that the world's two largest nuclear power stations might for the first time set limits for their nuclear weapons arsenals for the first time in decades.
Administration officials say their goal is to revive a dust pact for a new one age and increase global security.
"If we can get the deal If we can make sure it fits 2021 and beyond, President Trump has made it clear that if we can get a good solid arms control agreement, we should get one," said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Congress this month, he added that "we need to make sure we have all the parties that are relevant as part of this," said Pompeo. "Other countries other than Russia and China."
Trump The administration has not drafted a timeline for negotiations or even increased prospects with China and Russia. Pompeo told lawmakers that the United States was in "the very beginning of renewal talks" Treaty.
New Start "covers only a small subset of weapons which Russia was comfortable to cover, "said the official.
& # 39; We should eliminate as many of them as possible & nbsp;
" What the president wants to look at is we should bring all these weapons under control, "said the official." We should Eliminate as many of them as possible, we should look to eliminate classes of weapons. "With less than two years left in his first term, Trump would be under the gun to achieve something many consider impossible. Administration officials say it's not a reason not to try and it was pointed out that it took the Obama administration less than two years to negotiate New START.
It's a comparison that weapons control experts say doesn't hold water. New START was built on decades of initial START treaty negotiations, while a new country package might require starting from scratch.
Both US and Russian officials have signaled that renewal could be pronounced and difficult. Trump administration officials questioned whether Moscow's development of new nuclear weapons is the kind of step a "responsible stakeholder" would take.
Russian officials question that the US is complying with New START.
"The expansion of the new START is not a simple technique that could be resolved in a few weeks," said the Russian ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov at a weapons control conference this month. "Serious problems must be solved."
The new START treaty of 2010 limits both nations to deploy 1,550 nuclear warheads over 700 delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. It also allows for 18 on-site inspections each year, allowing each side to monitor the capacity of the others.
The treaty has expired in 2021, but can be extended for up to five years if both sides agree.
However, the White House does not see the need to rush to expand New START before they go for the bigger deal that would appear to include non-strategic weapons and get rid of certain classes of weapons.
"We don't have to discuss right now about an extension," the official said. Instead of "discussing with everything Russia and China are developing, what threatening threats to the United States look like, and what should a proposal look like to bring them both to the table to try to negotiate a better deal."
Core experts are cautious about getting too close to the renewal deadline, which will endanger the treaty. Lynn Rusten, a vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, says a "cautious way forward" would renew New START and then draw in the Chinese and potentially other nuclear countries such as Britain and France.
"An overly ambitious approach will be unnecessarily risky," says Rusten. "You can have belt and hanging fabrics and start laying the groundwork for a more ambitious deal. But I don't think getting rid of the belt and hanging funds increases the chances of getting the more ambitious deal. "
Rusten Concerns The closer the deadline becomes, the more both sides will try to exploit their position. if, can lead to a crash and burn.
Bell says that if New START expires, the US will lose access to important information about the Russian nuclear plant. "We give it up, we lose the intelligence that gives us a real view in their strategic arsenal … then we must make choices about what we do with our own nuclear weapons based on guess. "
Bell and the other question say that the administration's idea of including China in the treaty raises questions and in some ways
Concerns about China's willingness to engage
First, Beijing has long said that it would not engage in nuclear controls with countries that are very stubborn China has less than a tenth of the nuclear weapons that Russia and the United States have, it has no need for first use and is believed to save its warheads except its missiles.
"China is not even in the same ballpark," Bell said. "They don't even play the same game."
Unless Beijing agreed to be a junior partner in a broader pact – a very unlikely scenario – to bring China under the new START constraints, Washington and Moscow would make a scary choice.
To reach parity, they would either have to radically reduce their own weapons holdings or allow China to launch a massive nuclear structure that matches American and Russian numbers.
The Chinese Embassy did not respond to CNN's request for comment.
European defense officials say there is value in the idea of drawing China into strategic discussions, but they do not hold much hope.
"On the one hand, it is about wanting to include China, on the other hand, there is the realistic expectation that China is not interested in joining the framework," an official said. "When you put these two together, the prospects are not terribly optimistic."
In April, during a meeting with Chinese Vice President Liu He of the Oval Office, Trump said he believes Moscow and Beijing will "come together" on a nuclear agreement and said it could happen after the US and China has completed trade negotiations.
"I think it's much better if we all came and we don't make these weapons," Trump said. "As you know, China spends a lot of money on the military, so we are. It is Russia, and the three countries think I can come together and stop spending and spending on things that might be more productive to long-term long-term peace."