Yesterday, White Sox joined right-wing Eloy Jimenez, our eighth overall outlook on this year's Top 100, this week's extension paloza (now with a view!), Signing an extension of the precedent smash before he himself spent a day in the big leagues.
Eloy Jimenez's deal with the Chicago White Sox will be for six years and $ 43 million as @Ken_Rosenthal said. It will include a few club options and can amount to a maximum of $ 77 million. Sources tell ESPN.
– Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 20, 2019
An important point here is that the white sox appears to have leveraged service time manipulation to their advantage, as noted by Ken Rosenthal although they are far from the first club to have done so. When Chicago could have gotten a seventh year of control by leaving Jimenez in minors for 15 days, the twenty-six structure means he only gave up a year of potentially free agency from what was otherwise his best (and only) alternative to Take this deal. There is no way to know exactly how much money or years saved the white sox, but it took pretty much a season from the free agent column and moved it into the arbitration column, so the number is probably in millions. As this exact set of conditions could be changed in the next round of CBA negotiations, it was opportunistic for the White Sox to use this negotiating chip while still having it.
But it does not deny that this deal is at least partly done on some unpleasant public attitudes from a club in the midst of a refurbishment that does not go so well. They keep virtually their best prospects, and their fans, hostages, all push a little more value out of a potential franchise player for a long year. General manager Rick Hahn gave an unanswered answer in August, when Jimenez in a sixth straight season, where the club was more than 15 games out of the way, clearly justified a call but was left in Triple-A. Manager Rick Renteria randomly compared Jimenez to Ken Griffey Jr. last week when he was sent to minor league match. Astro's pitcher Collin McHugh shone light on the motivation behind the situation after Jimenez was elected. If Jimenez is on the opening day's roster, I'm sure we'll get some chuckles and shrugs when Hahn or Renteria is asked how he magically became bigger league-ready less than a week after they announced he wasn't.
Jimenez originally wrote for $ 2.8 million in 2013, so money plus the about $ 1.6 million he would get low league in 2019-2021 obviously would not create a set-for-life situation, especially after agent / buscon fees and taxes. The kind of player he's transformed into (a big corner hit that has become bigger and more corner-y in recent years) is not in demand in the free agency or elsewhere unless this player approaches the league or frames like JD Martinez. In our latest Top 100 watch list, we made a graph of Jimene's probable WAR outcomes during his cost-controlled years using empirical baseline for previous 60 FV hits:
Moving left to right Procenter is 12%, 15%, 30%, 28% and 15%. The weighted average of Jimene's team control year WAR is 15.5, which puts him in the middle to the lower end of the 60/65 group, which is joved with our 60 PV class. We pretty much believe that he is a perennial three-winner player with a chance of a season or two of the production higher than that, and about a 25% chance of becoming a role-player or a fizzles out quickly (the bottom two levels).  Craig Edwards & # 39; research points to a 60 FV hitter as being $ 55 million, but Jimenez is close to the top of this range and research from Dan Aucoin pegs, worth about $ 60 million. It would cover the first seven seasons without a deal, so $ 43 million guaranteed with a $ 77 million chance over eight years of age suggests that both sides are happy with Jimenez taking somewhere between $ 10 million and $ 20 million discount (about one-third) to get the money guaranteed, but lose a bit of upside. If Jimenez captures the full value of the deal (eight years, $ 77 million), the figure is very close to his current asset value over eight years or the median value of what he is worth over that term.
The White Sox assumes some risk that Jimenez ages very quickly and becomes a DH in his arbitration year, but they are in a remodel and it will have gone quite badly in other ways if it happens. Jimenez could leave some money on the table if he actually became JD Martinez, but I generally think that right-handed hitters with heavy builds for 22 years to take the median payout, especially if they haven't had a big payday yet. I just wished that these kinds of shenanigans were not what got them there.