The recession risk has been reignited under weakening global conditions, but recessions have never been contagious, and the US is doing fine, according to Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
The economic impacts manifested in Europe, China and Japan is worried about many of a global downturn, fear is the worsening US data, including durable goods, the Markit PMI and the manufacturing survey, but Brown said the data is skewed by government interruption and will soon recover.
"First Quarter is always disappointing, "said Brown, referring to a phenomenon called the residual season." For some years, we had it due to large northeastern snow. In other years we had it because of the falling price of the oil. It happens every single year. "
" You will see a jump back in the data as we get deeper in the second quarter as planned, "he said.
The bond market is also flashing a big recession signal as part of the yield curve has been reversed since Friday. The yield curve has been a reliable recession indicator in the past. But Brown called it a technical problem and does not expect it to show a recession.
"You will also see a growing recognition that much of what is happening with the yield curve Especially at the front itself is a technical problem. It has to do with excess savings in German banks. It's not an American economic problem, "Brown said.