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The Oscar's: 24 predictions and 24 useful observations

Prediction of Oscar's results is like predicting sunsets in a sunset. Sometimes you sit under a majestic rose-mauve skyline. Sometimes you penetrate a gray mass of flooded judgment. It's always different, but the unpredictability never changes. The Oscar's work the same way because something can happen when dealing with a small collection of private people who are seeking consensus on poorly defined notions of greatness. We use the Oscar not only to make the first draft of film history, but to emphasize which film or at least those who make film stand in their time. Last year's winner, Guillermo Del Toros The Watermelon quickly became a symbol of the outcast, a stamp of approval for the occupied believers who allow space in their lives for empathy in the face of inferiority. One year before it surpassed Barry Jenkins Moonlight huge odds of winning the biggest prize in film for a humble story of a gay American boy from a city in Florida, most people had never heard of ̵

1; the contrast was the story itself, a glamorous moment for a delicate composed personal story that showed how the changing academy redefined what it means to win the best image. What will 2019 tell us about the powerful 8,000 or so members of the organization, and what they think is important? It all depends on the winners.

Somehow, the Oscar's have become more predictable and more confused at the same time. The show's broadcast has disturbed in bad ideas for six consecutive months and did not find a single significant change that its members or fans of the Oscars in the public are considered acceptable. This despite falling ratings and an air of panic around the future of the show, and the movie writer is great. And so on Sunday night we at ABC's airwaves have a three-plus-hour show that sees 24 lucky winners receiving a small gold man's trophy and some songs and some montage to celebrate film history, and then we'll sleep and think about it next Marvel movie. It becomes the Oscars in all their faded and enchanting glory – a museum constructed and laid-off in real time.

But the prices are still the reason to tune in, because this is where something right and weird can happen. Last year, I blinked at zero hour and switched my best picture prediction from the water form to Get Out . It was a hopeless fit and a foolish one. I had imagined a world where Moonlight had changed everything that extroverted academic president Cheryl Boone Isaacs had moved membership so deeply that a new day was upon us. It was wrong and I was. It was chalk all the way down so much that I could correctly guess 21 of 24 and probably could have gotten a few more in there if I had saved the mood for one of those purple sunsets. This year's best image battle is the most open in recent memory. The nominees consist of a series of films that stand for all the stripes of modern moviedom: the relentless cartoon revolution ( Black Panther ); film star's dying art ( A star is born ); the unguarded bromantic problems image ( Green Book ); The Cockeyed Costume Drama ( The Favorite ); the political eye-poke ( Vice ); the main smacking biopic ( Bohemian Rhapsody ); "It's time!" participant ( BlacKkClansman ); and the auteurist tour de force ( Roma ). The subsequent stories write themselves. But what about the other awards – what will they tell about Hollywood and filmmaking? Here are my choices for Sunday night and some outrageous observations about what they could mean.

Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
Christopher Robin Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
First Man Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and JD Schwalm Ready Player One Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
Solo: And Star Wars Story Rob Bredow , Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy

The Pick: Avengers: Infinity War

The Point: A Marvel movie that wins a prize for special effects feels like a humble way to kick predictions, but as a friend recently pointed out, the big, stupid, dominant action franchises almost never win in this category last year took the elegant Blade Runner 2049 this category and beyond winne rs Life of Pi Ex Machina and Hugo . In some respects, the visual effects of voters have been a bulwark against the intrusion of mega-franchises. A superhero film has not won since 2004's Spider-Man 2 . Infinity War has had the smart money for several months, but if First Man sneaks up and snags this, it will not be the anesthetic some tell you.

Makeup and Hairstyling [19659014] Border Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
Mary Queen of Scots Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
Vice Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney [19659017] The Pick: Vice

Point: Cannom is one of the most recognized unknown names outside of academic circles. A Sunday win – highly favored – would give him four statuettes and rarely put him in the company of names like Katharine Hepburn and John Ford. Cannom has been working on makeup for almost 40 years and logged on Michael Jackson's "Thriller" video, Nightmare on Elm Street 3 and Big Top Pee-wee before winning his first Oscar for 1993's wife. Doubtfire . Don't stop dreaming.

Animated Short Film

Animal Behavior
A Little Step

The Pick:

The Pick:

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