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The latest intel on this loaded free agent market



Over the next three weeks with lots of cap seats, dozens of high quality free agents, a change of master and lots of uncertainty could transform the face of the NBA.

With the draft coming up and free bureau right behind it, here are some of the issues discussed in lightboxes:

How much will Bucks, 76ers and Hornets use?

Milwaukee Bucks has used the luxury treasure once in their history and not since the 2002-03 season.

Behind the scenes, the current owner group has made it known that it is willing to enter the treasure for the first time since the purchase of the team. In fact, it was clear when the team signed Eric Bledsoe for an extension in the spring that guarantees him $ 54 million over the next three years.

Coming from a 60-winter season and a year away from Giannis Antetokounmpo's chance to sign an extension, Bucks should pretty much enter the tax. But how much can they afford? The team has four major free agents to deal with: Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez, and Nikola Mirotic.

With so much open caprum across the league, Middleton is likely to get four-year maximum offers elsewhere and put pressure on Bucks to match or even beat them with a five-year deal. Knowing where Bucks are in, rival teams put them to the test with a tilbudsark on limited friagent Brodgon which has proven to be a valuable piece for them.

They have limited rights to Lopez coming

Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler are likely to receive maximum contract deals on June 30. Michael Reaves / Getty Images

The Philadelphia 76ers port has not paid the tax since 2004.

This summer, they face three free-range starters: Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris and JJ Redick. With a handful of teams with maximum space and Redick's experience and shooting in high demand, all three might cost 76ers more than $ 400 million in payroll. And by the way, Ben Simmons is able to ask for a nine-step extension this summer as well.

It's just massive money, and while the group has promise, there's no guarantee that the mix will work in the long run. [19659002] "We have said it repeatedly and we will continue to say so," said the tea-maker Josh Harris last month. "We are committed to doing what it takes to bring a championship to Philly, including spending on luxury tax … It is a system where if you take the wrong decisions economic, hamster your team. So there is much to consider

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Very Actually, teams have been eyeing Harris and Butler for months. There has been a recent sensation that 76ers are obliged to hold both, although the maximum offers, but leaders of hopeful poachers are managed seats to ensure That is the case.

Charlotte Hornets is one of two teams who have never paid the tax. Owner Michael Jordan has made it a priority to avoid it during his time limit.

But with the remains of a consumption strain from 2016 still on the books, re-signing Kemba Walker would almost certainly push the Hornets there for at least 2019 -20 season.

For weeks it has not only been a matter of whether they would offer Walker a five-year max, but would they make it a supermax deal and pay $ 221 million after making the All-NBA team. If Walker were to sign for a maximum elsewhere, that would mean leaving $ 80 million against the supermax.

Everyone says the right things. Walker has said that the Hornets are his priority and hinted that he would take less than supermaxen be if it helped build the team. Hornets general manager Mitch Kupchak left the possibility of paying the luxury tax in comments last week and even suggested that he wanted to move up from number 12.

But teams do not just look at whether they pay Walker – the I also see to pick. The asset is perhaps the most valuable and last option to attach to a player to pay wages before Walker hits the free agency. If tax evasion is avoided, it really is a mandate and Walker really holds a priority, it could be on the move on or before draft night.


Celtics' future depends on what Al Horford and Kyrie Irving do in the free office. Maddie Meyer / Getty Images

What will happen to Celtics if / when Kyrie leaves?

Outside, the Boston Celtics hold a stiff upper lip, but internally, they have long ago made plans for Kyrie Irving to sign Brooklyn Nets as expected at this time or elsewhere. The reality is that the Celtics probably will lose their best player and may not have any functional way to replace him immediately.

The most important thing about Celtics' doorstep right now can be Al Horford, who may differ from his contract Tuesday. Keeping him, perhaps on a new long-term deal, is crucial, and the scenario leaders see closer than Irving to be honest.

If Horford hit the market, he would be a highly desirable player for a challenger. Teams may even be willing to cut pieces to remove a place for him. But if Irving leaving and Horford are retained – perhaps on a contract that lowers his salary of $ 30 million, scheduled for next season – would Boston have something hulerum to go out and add some more talent.

Then they could exceed the hat to rewrite free agents Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris, whose offer could be drafted (also not eager to return, but Rozier is limited and Irving's decision may change the whole environment.)

You have maybe this number was floating around this season: Celtics was 12-3 when Irving didn't play. In raw data, it is true that Celtics has gained more during the last two seasons without Irving than with him. They were 26-11 when he didn't play, a .704 wins percent and 78-49 with him, a .614 win percent. And of course they went to Game 7 at the Eastern Conference Final without him in 2018 and were knocked out in five games with four equal losses to Milwaukee Bucks in the second round this year with him.

Then Irving not & # 39; t play, celtics are better at defense and rozier's production is flourishing. Some of the best games we've seen from Jayson Tatum are also without Irving. So Irving bolts and everything should just be fine, right?

Eh. Despite all these figures, Irving's value is undisputed. They were much better off with Irving, and their net rating, which to some is the mother of all team statistics, falls by more than half from plus-5.9 points per day. 100 possessions for just plus 2.7 points when not in the game.

Using Real Plus Minus data, ESPN's Kevin Pelton estimates that if Celtics brought back their entire roster less Irving, they would have five fewer wins next season. It would mean a record of 44-38, which would have given them no. 6-frog last season. Not exciting.

But you can say this: They would probably be happier as a team without Irving off-court drama and domination on the court. The reality turns out not always in the analyzes, but proved in their record, and if so the Celtics when Irving was out, it felt at times that they were children at recess.

Lots of scouts believe Tatum and Jaylen Brown has much more to show. Plus President Danny Ainge has three first-round picks and other assets to help. It would be an interesting scenario to see.


Will Kawhi take a short deal and drive it back?

Location is most important, clear. But the length of the contract that Kawhi Leonard had to sign is something discussed throughout the league.

We go over the numbers in an instant, but it is not lost to anyone that Leonard could split the difference between his priorities by taking a one-year contract with a player opportunity with the Toronto Raptors and trying to drive it back while he did not the rest of his prime. There is also some financial incentive for this scenario.

Wide emphasize is this: If Leonard stays with the Raptors, he could sign for up to five years and 190 million dollars. If he goes elsewhere – to LA Clippers – he could get $ 140 million over four years. But cap rules would mean that he could do potentially tens of thousands more if he signs a long term agreement in 2021, when he had 10 years of experience, than in 2019.

So why not consider a one-year deal for 33 million US dollars plus a play $ 36 million? Especially with Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam under contract for next season. This group will also include Marc Gasol if he chooses his player setup as expected.

The answer to why not? Kawhi just saw two free agents going down with big injuries in Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, and Leonard has already suffered a major injury that cost him a season. But it is something that is on the board.


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