Published on April 5, 2019 |
by Jose Pontes
5. April 2019 by Jose Pontes
After the December delivery stop, the Dutch plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market had another sales increase last month, with 4,721
In the chart above, click "YTD" to see sales in the 1st quarter and click "March" To return to the March sale.
This good market performance was mainly due to Tesla Model 3, which had 2,195 deliveries in March, a new record for any Tesla in the Netherlands, which also gave Tesla sedan to last month's best seller in the country all fuel categories included with an advantage of over 1,000 units over Ford Focus 2 (1,187 units).
Two other recent long-lasting BEVs reached the PEV podium also with the Hyundai Kona EV (376 units) and Kia Niro EV (323 units, new personal best) underscores the changing market dynamics.
Surprisingly, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was also 3. with 323 units, which was by far the best selling PHEV in this market. The Japanese SUV scored its best performance since December 2016 as it lost the corporate car's tax benefits due to legislative changes. So even without tax incentives, buyers buy (or should I say, fleet managers?) Back to Mitsubishi dealers.
On the podium, Nissan LEAF (288 records) keeps pumping out decent performances, even with the threatening 62 kWh version just a few months away.
We have a new leader with Tesla Model 3, jumping to # 1, leaving the former leader (Hyundai Kona EV) about 1,500 units behind. In the regular market, California is now fifth, only behind the # 1 Ford Focus (3,567 units), # 2 VW Golf (3,506), # 3 VW Polo (3,402) and # 4 Kia Picanto (3,109).  Will we see the Model 3 finish the year on the mainstream podium?
The following positions remained pretty much the same, with the only change that the BMW i3 surpassed its Renault Zoe rival, climbed to # 7.
Outside the top 10, the rankings are more dynamic, with the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV, six positions jump to # 12, where the 94 deliveries from March are the nameplate's best result since December 2016.
After its delivery in December tsunami (2,621 units, the best result ever for a BEV), That brought it to # 2 last year, the Jaguar I-PACE fell sharply. But it's back in the ranking, in # 19, thanks to 40 deliveries in March.
In the big luxury car class, we still have the # 15 BMW 530e (33 units, 11% of all 5 series sales) ahead of the competition, but the Porsche Panamera PHEV was a # 18 position, thanks to 35 listings, the nameplate's best performance since last august. The PHEV version of Panamera actually represented 77% of all Panamera sales. For Model S, it is out of the top 20, with only 32 units delivered (-96% YoY).
As for luxury SUVs, the best seller in the 2019 Land Rover Range Rover PHEV is with 114 records ahead of the Volvo XC90 PHEV (99 units), but last month, Audi registered e-tron 40 units and became it month's best seller, so it would not be a surprise if we a few months from now see the Germans SUV not only in the top 20, but perhaps in the top of this category. For people asking about Model X, the news is not good at all, with only 22 units delivered in the first quarter, down 94% YoY, but more on this is below.
In the producer's ranking, Tesla is the new leader Following the podium is Nissan (9%), Kia (8%) and Mitsubishi (8%), followed by Hyundai (15%) in 2nd and Volkswagen (10%) in 3.
Source: RAI Association and EV Volumes
Tesla Model 3 & ICE Competition
One of the questions about Model 3 in Europe regarding the impact it will make on this side of the Atlantic has been whether it will interfere with plug-in and gas / diesel (ICE) since the market in the same way as it does in the US. Or will it be more subdued because it plays away from home?
The answer has now begun to be written. Comparing the first quarter Model 3 deliveries to the car's mid-sized premium competitors, we can see that it has managed to kick some premium ass outrun them all. Even behavior differs from one ICE model to another. Audi A4 records dropped 47%, Mercedes and BMW nameplates stagnated (+ 2% and + 5% respectively), and Volvo S / V60 twins are up 76%, with its PHEV version still in ramp-up mode (representing only 9% of all sales). When the production of the Swedish PHEV is in cross-state, it expects to be responsible for at least 20% of the model's sales, which helps it run in front of the Germans. Although the revised BMW 330e is said to start selling in the summer, BMW Sports Sedan could help overcome the Volvo model over # 2.
|1||BMW 5 Series ICE||695|
|2||Mercedes E-Class ICE||340|
|3||Volvo S / V90 ICE||530e PHEV||86|
With luxurious EVs losing generous tax incentives in January, sales were tied to tank this year for ICE models and PHEVs.
And then, while Tesla Model S was in podium positions a year ago, the management disputes with the BMW 5 series, sales (32 deliveries)Sales
BMW X5 ICE
A year ago, Tesla model X dominated the front and center of this category. This year, with only 22 deliveries, it is far behind the front windows.
In contrast to the respective car category where ICE is still king, here in Behemoth Land plug-in hybrids have a relevant role. While the leader, the BMW X5, is the entire ICE (for now), the runner-up Range Rover Sport PHEV represents 88% of the type plate sales, while the Volvo XC90 has its sales evenly distributed between the ICE version and PHEV. Finally, the Range Rover has 76% of its sales from the PHEV version as well.
But one can always say that these nameplates were not affected by the fiscal changes that occurred at the end of the year, so it would be natural that they jumped in front of the Model X.
What about the 60 Jaguar I-PACE and 42 Audi e-tron registered so far this year? Both had the same tax restrictions, and yet they are in front of the Tesla Model X, despite the fact that the first one is too expensive for what it is, and the other has poor efficiency and still bing in ramp-up mode.
Off-Topic Rant About the model S & X
I think this is only a symptom of a larger tendency with respect to Model S and X, that the sales report Tesla Q1 2019 sheds some light on. While the Model 3 part was not surprising, with the deliveries up YoY, the fact that the Model S / X was over 50% worrying and that is also evidence that the Tesla demand is final.
There are several reasons to explain this:
- First, there are tax problems (both models lost benefits in the US and NL).
- Secondly, there is a long rumor Q2 / Q3 2019 update of both nameplates.
- Thirdly, the fact that Tesla now has competition is something that was missing for several years, and although they are not (yet) at Tesla level, they are particularly good / different enough for people to get it best choice with many prefer one of the just landed BEVs or are waiting for those who are about to arrive, like the much-anticipated Porsche Taycan.
- The fourth reason is specific to Model S and is called cannibalization, as it is slightly smaller, younger, and much cheaper Model 3 siblings. Model 3 has almost the same range and can charge more and is the ultimate "hot EV" today. There are simply people who usually extend to Model S, which now buys the Model 3's.
And I have a final note about the Model S / X's future plans. There have been rumors of pulling the Model S market.
I think this is a mistake, not only because the Mercedes S-Class type of customer would be less likely to buy a Tesla, but also because it is a limited market (+/- 80,000 units / year for the S-Class), while the lower class has much more room to grow - Mercedes E-Class hit 355,000 units in 2018.
With the current Model S sitting somewhere without Man's land between the E and F segments Just like the Audi A7, it would be wise for Tesla to go down and see the Mercedes E-Class and the BMW 5 series from face to face as Model 3 does in its own category.
But for this Tesla would launch a competitive standard version of Model S with about 300 miles of range and sell for about 70,000-75,000.
Impossible? Want to destroy the profitability of these models? I have no idea but one thing I know: Tesla Model S and X demand limits are now being discovered and the automaker must decide what the vehicles are - either niche players, like Porsche cars, with high margins or targeted BMW and Mercedes.