At the moment, it looks like President Trump has jumped a bit back to the bottom.
The president was at a low point against former Vice President Joe Biden, but in the past month, although Biden still has an edge, the landscape has tightened some, according to the latest NPR Electoral College analysis.
The biggest change is that Florida has been tightening for a month and a half since our last analysis and is back in the toss-up category. This means that including states leaning against Biden, he is just below the 270-vote threshold needed to win the presidency. He currently has a 268-to-1
What we changed
Florida from Lean D to Toss Up
Nebraska’s 2nd District from Lean R to Toss Up
Virginia from Lean D to probable D
New mexico from Lean D to probable D
We have made only a few changes, but one important one: Florida is moving back to its traditional place as a vomiting state. While Biden maintains a small lead there, Trump has gained about 4 percentage points on average in polls since the end of July.
A new Monmouth University poll in Florida has seen Biden rise by 5 points among registered voters, and an NBC / Marist poll that has run rampant locked at 48% per. Percentage among likely voters.
The investigations showed conflicting findings when it came to Latinos. Monmouth had Biden with a big lead among Latinos, but still underperformed what Hillary Clinton got with the group in 2016. It is also something that is reflected on the ground as Democrats are worried about being able to register enough Latino voters in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
Both studies showed that Trump and Biden split seniors. This is bad news for Trump, given that he won them by a wide margin in Florida in 2016. This is something Republicans are worried about – not just in the presidential election, but also in the vote.
Biden underperformed with Latinos, but overperformance with voters 65 and older has been something seen consistently this year. How these unpredictable shifts take place is unclear and could mean volatility, which voters turn out to be.
Jim Watson / AFP via Getty Images
Nebraska’s 2nd District
Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District by 2 points in 2016. Second lady Karen Pence and Lara Trump, the wife of Trump’s son Eric, stumped for the president of this district’s Omaha area last month. Democratic sections of the district have registered Democrats since 2016 faster than Republicans have done so in right-wing areas. And the congress there right now is neck and neck.
Virginia and New Mexico
Demography continues to develop democratically in Virginia. In a shift from 2016, there are now almost as many whites with a university degree as outside the state, as the population of Asian Americans also continues to grow. New Mexico has also evolved democratically, with 40% of the state’s voters being Latino in 2016, according to exit polls.
In both states, Biden has a double-digit lead on average in the polls.
What we did not change
Arizona remains Toss Up, but Biden has an edge
Biden has been leading in Arizona since March, but his margin is still quite narrow. There have not been plenty of good votes, though a Fox News poll had Biden up 9 points with likely voters. If other polls show similar results, it may be a state that moves to the Lean D column.
In Georgia, Trump and Biden are changing positions
Not much has changed in Georgia. The state remains close. The bite was narrowly ahead in mid-July, but now Trump is ahead and returning to where things were earlier in the year.
Iowa remains as Lean R
Iowa has, on average, moved a few points back in Trump’s favor, even though Trump and Biden are within 2 points of each other. While the polls indicate a statistical draw, Trump won here, and it is a state with a high white, non-college-educated population, giving Trump an advantage for now.
Ethan Miller / Getty Images
Ohio remains Toss Up, but we’re watching
There has not been much voting in Ohio, but Trump has gotten approx. 4 points in polls the last few months, giving him a very small advantage. Trump won it in 2016, and given his high population of whites without a college degree, Ohio remains a state where Trump can have an edge.
Pennsylvania remains as Lean D.
The average of the polls shows that the race is tightened by a few points, but that Biden is still ahead. And better votes have shown a larger margin than average. The tightening is something to see to see if Trump makes more inroads in the next few weeks.
Texas remains Lean R
According to the polls, Trump and Biden are statistically tied in Texas. And Biden continues to surpass where Clinton was in 2016. But there has not been very good voting in the state this cycle; no Democrat has won the state in a presidential election since 1976; and Texas has not elected a Democrat to state office since 1994. Let’s see where the race is in a few weeks with better voting.
Wisconsin remains Toss Up
Right now, this condition may be a tip on the scale for Biden according to the polls, but a Marquette Law School poll had an interesting finding that should worry Democrats: Among the registered voters, Biden rose 6 points, but among likely voters who fell to 4 points. With all the instability in the state at the moment, its past voting results (Trump won it narrowly) and the fact that it has one of the highest white, non-college-educated populations in the swing states, it remains in the throw-up category for now.
Other places to see
Kansas, Montana and South Carolina
Let’s be clear: all of this is still in places where Trump is likely to win, but it is remarkable by the national climate that Trump’s leadership in all three is in the individual digits of an average of the votes.
For more on our method and possible scenarios for ways to win for Biden and Trump, check out our first Electoral College analysis from June.