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SpaceX's second Falcon Heavy launch is likely to slip and that's OK



The first Block 5 variant of SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket has rolled out to Launch Pad 39A for an inaugural launch that could occur as early as April 7th. Minor delays, however, are extremely likely for the second Falcon Heavy launch attempt, with the most likely dates resting closer to April 8-11.

With a noticeably deviating from Falcon 9 Block 5's more tuxedo- esque exterior, Falcon Heavy and its all-new boosters still sport the same polished white skin and some of the black, felt-like thermal protection that helps make the upgraded boosters so reusable. That reusability will be tested to the extreme as few as two months after launch ̵

1; assuming all goes well – with the US Air Force's STP-2 mission, set to giant both of Falcon Heavy Flight 2's side boosters, B1052 and B1053

Above all else, it should be noted that the likelihood of Falcon Heavy Flight 2's actual launch date is not to say that everything is technically or operationally wrong with the rocket or ground support equipment (GSE). Rather, it's simply a dose of pragmatism for a launch date that was originally approved on the range alongside a static fire on March 31st. In other words, SpaceX was anticipating the need for approximately seven days between static fire and launch, a fairly believable target relative to Falcon Heavy's first launch flow.

Even if SpaceX completes a flawless Falcon Heavy static fire immediately after the 6 pm EDT window opens, this would give company engineers and technicians more than 72 hours to turn the rocket around for launch as soon as. 6:36 pm EDT on April 7th. That process involves a huge amount of work, including the actual static fire, safely refueling (removing propellant), returning to Pad 39A's hangar, installing the payload fairing, ensuring payload health, rolling back out to the pad, and integrating the transporter with the launch mount. Throughout, many checks and double checks are made to ensure that everything is ready for flight.

Safely completing that work in ~ 72 hours is extremely difficult for Falcon 9, let alone and significantly modified Falcon Heavy preparing for the vehicle's second launch attempt ever. For reference, excluding a few outlier launches, Falcon 9 Block 5's mean time between static fire and launch is ~ 4.7 days, while the mode is 5 days (6/10 launches). Outliers include missions like SSO-A, DM-1, and GPS III SV01, all of which are required unique care and caution for various reasons. Chances are good that Falcon Heavy Flight 2 will probably improve upon Flight 1, which took several days to complete a static fire and 13 more days before a launch attempt. Still, the rocket is very unlikely to beat Falcon 9 Block 5's average time-to-launch.

Falcon Heavy prepares for its inaugural launch, February 2018. (SpaceX)

All in good time

There is a 5% chance of Falcon and shows all the systems running in the green. If SpaceX is unable to fit a static for the April 4th window, that will likely drop to 0%. Either way, we can expect SpaceX to provide an updated launch or rough estimate as early as today, especially if the static fire test is successfully completed.

In the meantime, drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) – accompanied by a boat – is heading nearly 1000 km (620 mi) into the Atlantic Ocean to prepare for the attempted recovery or Falcon Heavy's center core. In other words, it will probably be the fastest and farther a SpaceX booster has ever traveled while still attempting to land. Just Falcon Heavy's launch debut, both side boosters will attempt to land back at Landing Zones 1 and 2 (LZ-1 & LZ-2) around 8-10 minutes after liftoff. The 6000-kg (~ 13,200 lb) Lockheed Martin-built Arabsat 6A satellite will be the rocket's first commercial payload, likely heading to a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit.

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