Scottish nationalists are unlikely to win an absolute majority in Thursday’s parliamentary elections, a blow to their hopes of demanding an independence vote that could divide the UK, a poll by Savanta Comres / The Scotsman said.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) wants a majority in the delegated parliament to demand a new referendum, although British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will not give one.
The Savanta Comres / Scotsman vote indicated that the SNP would lose six seats to win a direct majority, but that the Greens, working with the SNP, could win as many as nine seats.
“If these polls show up on Thursday’s poll, it’s likely to leave the SNP below the majority,” said Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta ComRes.
Savanta ComRes interviewed 1,001 Scottish adults online between April 30 and May 4. Other polls suggest the prospect of an SNP majority is too close to calling.
The only time the SNP had won a majority before was in 2011. Britain’s then-Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to pressure and accepted a referendum in 2014. Scots then voted 55-45% to remain in the more than 300-year-old Union.
During a pre-election debate, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said she would not call an illegal, so-called “wildcat” vote if Prime Minister Johnson refused to allow one.
But she and her party have repeatedly raised the threat of legal action if Johnson denies it.
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