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Nightmare result of US-NKorea talks: bad deal, little change



Nightmare scenario enters the second summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is not so much "fire and rage" and millions dead. Rather, some experts fear that the meeting may result in an unconsidered agreement that will allow North Korea to do whatever it wants while giving up very little, although the Mercurial leader's trumpet is a huge nuclear success.

There is little argument that just sitting together again in the same room this week in Hanoi is a positive sign of two men who seemed to flirt with another Korean war in 2017 and there is, as the White House trumpet in front of the summit, "a huge opportunity" here to solve a monumental problem that is flustered generations of politicians.

But with the stacks so high, a growing chorus of experts highlights a particular risk: that Trump, criticized by criticism, that the results of his June meeting with Kim in Singapore were vague at best and a serious failure at worst would ignore his more cautious helpers and try to find an agreement that is cobbled together on the run with some preparatory work.

Why is this potentially dang erous? Because when it comes to North Korean nuclear diplomacy, all offers are not created the same.

Take a look at some of the concerns before the Hanoi Summit:

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WORRY NO. 1: A SIGNIFICANT DEAL

South Korean papers have been filled with unidentified sources of government suggesting that Trump and Kim might enter into an agreement that is far from the road map for the full nuclearization of the North, which the United States has long insisted on [19659005] Instead, Kim could accept giving up only a portion of his arsenal – his intercontinental missiles targeting America, for example, or his main nuclear reactor – in return for the easing of harsh sanctions. There are also fears that Trump will eventually orchestrate some form of US troop reduction from South Korea or an extended interruption of US South Korean military exercises.

For Trump, such an agreement could generate a much-needed rush of "breakthrough" headlines to help distract from swirling studies in Washington, while assuring his supporters that he was protecting the US mainland.

For his part, Kim would take a big step towards cementing the North as a nuclear weapon state and as a bonus running a wedge in the US-South Korea alliance, which the Nordic countries maintain, aims at the destruction of the Kim family – all without addressing the arsenal of nuclear-armed missiles with maps and circles aimed at Seoul, Tokyo and other parts of Asia.

Those in favor of this kind of piece agreement say that it is simply a matter of accepting reality: North Korea will not give up nukes, it sees it as crucial to deter what it calls us hostility, so the wise movement e is to work to first limit or freeze the program's most worrying aspects and then work towards total denuclearisation.

Skeptics say this would give the north too much in return for too little. Instead, they want something that first strengthens Pyongyang to inform the details of its nuclear program. Then, outsiders give the opportunity to verify the list and see the program demolished.

"Non-agreed ad hoc offers or neglected negotiations will allow Pyongyang to dictate the conditions, pace and duration of the diplomatic process without doing anything in North Korea's nuclear arsenal," wrote Duyeon Kim, a Koreas New American Security Center expert recently.

"There is a serious risk of Trump ad libbing's way in a bad deal as he did in Singapore in June 2018, by giving up vital negotiating chips that are inferior to US interests and Asian Allies security," she added.

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WORRY NO. 2: KIM AND TRUMP ARE FOR ALIGNET

There is a joke shared by some North Korean experts: Have you heard that Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump both want the same from their Hanoi Summit? United States out of South Korea.

Funny or not, the dark humor in serious doubt is combed by Trump's repeated public expression of a deep war on the US-South Korea alliance, which many in Seoul and Washington see as a lynchpin of Northeast Asian security.

The best example could be Trump's amazing advertising in Singapore on the suspension of annual military exercises from Seoul and Washington, which North Korea railes as "invasion preparation."

Trump called the exercises "very provocative," reflecting North Korean language.

Although his lieutenants say the removal of US troops is not on the agenda in Hanoi, Trump has said he will eventually bring home the 28,500 troops stationed in the south. Just this month, Trump said, "South Korea – we're defending them and losing a lot of money. Billions of dollars a year defend them."

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WORRY NO. 3: NORDKOREA HAS NOT CHANGED

There is also an alarm that Trump and South Korea's stupid president are misleading about North Korea.

"Kim will not unilaterally surrender his nuclear weapons," said Vipin Narang, a North Korean nuclear expert at MIT, said in an interview. "It is quite clear now that Trump does not care that Kim will not unilaterally disarm, as long as he does not scare Trump by visible flight test missiles or openly testing nuclear weapons."

Despite the positive spin On North Korean intentions of the Liberal Government in Seoul, critics say that Pyongyang, as it has since the Korean War, continues to claim to be the only legitimate Korean government and is therefore working to divide South Korea from its US patron. and maintain its nuclear power program, even though it partially, as a way to lure force Seoul to make its bidding.

North Korea has famously called its atomic arsenal a "worthy sword". And a senior North Korean official said last year that the dialogue will not continue "if the US is trying to get us into a corner to force our one-sided nuclear decommissioning."

Asked by a recent press release about North Good-faith negotiations, a senior US official who refused to give his name under the White House rules, said: "I do not know whether North Korea has the choice yet to recall. for us to be involved in this is because we believe there is a possibility that North Korea may choose to complete the denuclearisation. "

Trump tweeted Sunday that he and Kim" both expect a continuation of the progress of the first summit in Singapore. Denuclearisation? "

Still there is much doubt about the intentions of the North.

When the two leaders meet in Hanoi, Kim "will further induce Trump on his march against full atomization, forcing Trump to make more concessions as a peace deal and the reduction of military support to South Korea," said Sung-Yoon Lee, a Korean expert at Tufts University. "Peace" sounds very pleasant, even hypnotically prolonging, but a peace agreement between the United States and North Korea and giving Kim Jong Un the opportunity to buy more time only increases the chance of war. "

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Foster Klug is the AP's office manager in South Korea and has covered Korea since 2005. Follow him at www.twitter.com/apklug


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