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Iran attitude right from Trumps North Korea playbook



Trump administration uses its North Korea playbook on Iran: Use a "maximum pressure" campaign – the same nomenclature was used for Tehran and Pyongyang – to put the opponent in a corner and then try to negotiate. Respond to a threat by escalating your own threat. Then negotiate to relieve tension and claim a victory.

In the case of North Korea, US President Donald Trump's now infamous "fire and rage" ultimatum kicked the greatest tensions: "North Korea is no better off by the fact that you will be met with fire and rage that the world has never seen. .. he has been very threatening beyond a normal state. "
The threat to Iran came in the form of a tweet Sunday:" If Iran will fight, it will be the official end of Iran. Never again threaten the United States! " 19659004] Van Jackson, a former official of the Defense Ministry under the Obama administration and the author of "On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the threat of nuclear war," told CNN that Trump "took a gamble aimed at major threats in North Korea, he paid no price for it so far, and now he thinks he is a good player. "

" "Trump has no idea that the North Korean nuclear crisis was the closest America came to nuclear war since 1962. Th by ignorance leads him to repeat many of the same impulsive f Eile, which almost brought disaster in 2017, "Jackson added.

Rhetorical lashes

On the camera, Trump took a much smaller combat tone in an interview with Fox News, which released Sunday.

"I just don't want them to have nuclear weapons and they can't threaten us," Trump said of Iran.

"With all that goes on and I'm not one who thinks – you know, I'm not someone who wants to go to war because war hurts economies, war kills people most importantly – by far the most important."

Iran's chief Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly refused Iran to build a bomb and says that weapons of mass destruction are banned under Islam.

On the same question, Trump also asked North Korea as a diplomatic victory.

"When I went to North Korea, there were nuclear tests all the time, there were missiles that went up all the time, we had a very hard time and then we came together. We'll see what is happening right now," said Trump .

He went on: "Right now I don't think I told them when I left Vietnam, where we had the summit, I told President Kim, and I think much more important, I said, you're not ready for a deal because he wanted to get rid of one or two places, but he has five places. I said what about the other three places? It's not good (if) we have to make an appointment, let's make a real deal. But they haven't had any tests over the last two years. "

The problem is that the jury is still out about whether Trump's North Korea strategy will eventually bear fruit. Right now it doesn't look good.

" It seems very clear that at least the President's strategy is to curb the temperature and pressure on Iran to renegotiate the JCPOA (the Joint Action Plan, known as Iran's nuclear agreement), which he believes was defective because it allowed Iran to have a (clearly regionally aggressive) foreign policy and some remnants of defense capabilities (ie, missiles) and sunset clauses on enrichment covers, "MIT professor and nuclear proliferation expert Vipin Narang said.

Trump formally left Iran's nuclear agreement, to the horror of both Iran and its European signatories in May 2018. [19659009] "It is dangerous to run the same game on Iran on the wrong conviction that it was working with North Korea when the evidence is certainly mixed, if it is not quite the fight they, "added Narang.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Trump left their February summit in Hanoi without a deal and clearly far apart on the parameters needed to seal one.

Trump has openly pushed for an agreement with Kim, where both sides are all in: North Korea completely dismantles its nuclear and ballistic missile programs in exchange for full sanctions.

Kim pointed out that he is dissatisfied with how the negotiations have gone since he and Trump did not reach agreement in Hanoi. In a speech to the ruling Labor Party last month, Kim said he would have until the end of the year "to see if the US is making a brave decision or not."

"Claiming a victory in North Korea when the result has been anything but dangerous on two fronts: With North Korea, because Kim is likely to hold gradual escalating behavior that the US finds provocative and with Iran because Trump seems to have internalized its his own fact-free tale of the magic he worked with North Korea, "Jackson said.

In many cases in Washington, Pyongyang has resumed test firing of short-range ballistic missiles that could potentially carry nuclear weapons. Kim only agreed to stop testing long-distance missiles that threaten US mainland, but short-range missiles in theory threaten North Korea's neighbors and US troops stationed there. After the test, Trump said he didn't think North Korea was "ready to negotiate."

Pyongyang has suggested that it seeks a step-by-step, step-by-step process to build trust between the two sides. Washington worries that this approach could be easily exploited by North Korea.

Catch-22 is that North Korea is likely to get rid of its nuclear weapons program if it has a trusting and stable relationship with the United States. And the United States will probably only develop a normal relationship with North Korea if it refrains from its nuclear weapons program.

Trump may not have the time to develop this trust and destroy the nuclear power of Iran – despite the fact that Tehran has been found in accordance with the International Atomic Energy Agency's pact – put him in a harder negotiating position.

Trump's supporters claimed to abandon the Iran agreement would send a clear signal to Kim Jong Un about the type of deal that Trump administration would be willing to negotiate.

But his critics say throwing it out turned out to be Pyongyang, Tehran or any other party willing to negotiate with the United States that an agreement can only last as long as the president who signed it.

It's a big handicap for a president who exploits the power of personal relationships in reaching agreements – goes as far as he says he was in love with Kim.

Love must not have forward limits, but Trump does.


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