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Inverted Yield Curve Is Counting Investors What They Already Know



The market's most-reliable recession indicator is finally flashing. With the Treasury yield curve inverting on Friday – the 10-year yield fell sharply to the lower than the three-month for the first time since 2007 – is it time to prepare for an economic downturn?

The answer is nuanced. It is true that the yield curve is the best forecasting tool for recessions, having inverted before the last seven recessions as measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research.


  


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