Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire. Julian Castro does it all on Nevada. South Carolina is crucial to Cory Booker's chances.
The 23 candidates who are calling for democratic nomination are retrieving events and plowing resources into the four early presidential states, telegraphing, which says they prioritize and which they write.  Narration continues below
The campaigns are fond of discussing the primary year card for must-win states or competitions, they do not believe they can win. But already the outlines of their strategies show.
Interviews with nearly two dozen campaign officials, party leaders, and grassroots activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina reveal that staff decisions, travel plans, and field organizations are starting to have a county and district-level impact.
From the bottom up here is how the early state democrats characterize the democratic primary state.
When adage goes, Iowa does not always choose the winners, but it almost always chooses losers. It will probably be more serious by 2020 than ever before.
John Hickenlooper, Amy Klobuchar, John Delaney Eric Swalwell, Steve Bullock – Only a few candidates need a strong finish in February 3 caucuses to realistically move on.
Beto O & # 39; Rourke is among those who signal a strong finish in Iowa, crucial. The former Texas congressman chose it for his first stop after announcing his presidential campaign and has already had 67 townhouses and other public events in 36 of the state's 99 counties. His trip there this week marked his fourth trip since joining the race in mid-March.
Despite the relatively late start, Rourke has quickly assembled a 16-member Iowa operation led by Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party, steeped in caucus mechanics.
Joe Biden who has not got it out of Iowa in his 2008 bid but is currently the foremost runner is another whose campaign will crater in the face of a weak Iowa performance.
Expectations are particularly high for him, according to first-time leaders and rival campaigners: The strength of his candidacy will not be measured if he can win Iowa, but how much.
Biden has vowed to make frequent trips to Iowa, but his visits and investments in the organization will soon rise. It is the last state in which Biden announced his staffing – long after some rivals were almost full-fledged – and he has just made a trip to the state so far.
"I think the challenge for him is that being a frontrunner is a kiss of death," says Jerry Crawford, a prolonged Iowa democratic powerbroker, noting that Bids command leader means he will be a target for attacks in the next eight months.
Bernie Sanders, who consistently ranks a close second to Biden in state accounts, came within three tenths of a percentage point to beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. The strong ending jumps to win either this time or get close.
A sign of import Sanders places on the state: He shifts away from straight rallies and now takes questions on events, a reflection of Iowa voters' demands for more interaction with candidates.
This time, he already begins armed with a base of fervent support. At the time of the Vermont Senator's February launch, 19,000 people were on the Iowa campaign, either to volunteer, to donate, or even to pledge to the Vermont Senator caucus. Over three months, it swelled to more than 25,700 – already about 15 percent of the 171,000 Democrats participating in the 2016 caucus.
"We inherited a movement," said Sander's senior advisor in Iowa, Pete D & # 39; Alessandro. "These are people who didn't go away."
Still, it is Elizabeth Warren who has poured more resources into Iowa than perhaps any of her competitors.
The scale of her expansive earth organization indicates her ambitions. She said she intends to compete in all four early states and proven it by placing 200 paid employees in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Warren has in the first two states to vote – Iowa and New Hampshire – so far held over 50 events, a reflection of the dead character of these states for her campaign. She doesn't have to win Iowa directly, but her deep investment in the state means that a poor finish will be a huge blow to her campaign. And she will need some kind of Iowa jump to succeed in New Hampshire, where she is expected to finish among the top three to continue.
Cory Booker another who made early and deep investments in Iowa staffing, is commonly considered to have one of the best on-the-ground organizations in the state. Iowa is not an important state for him – his greater efforts are in South Carolina – but his campaign recognizes that Barack Obama's 2008 South success only came after Iowa had first issued a stamp of approval.
Booker is better placed in Iowa than Kamala Harris who turns out to be one of his best rivals in South Carolina. Her team won't reveal how many employees they have in Iowa. But Harris has some knowledge of the state from fighting there for Obama in 2008, and her Iowa campaign chairman Deidre DeJear was Iowa's first black nominee for statewide office from a major political party as she ran for Secretary of State last year.  NEW HAMPSHIRE
For a top-ten candidate performing poorly in Iowa, New Hampshire stands to give a lifeline. And if a lower graduate surprises the field in Iowa, New Hampshire becomes the instant reality check. As a result, more candidates flock to larger numbers – and with more frequency – than local democrats ever remember.
The two candidates under most pressure in New Hampshire are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren . Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton by more than 20 percentage points in New Hampshire in 2016, making it a must-win for him in 2020. Warren, another neighbor senator who shares a media market with the state, must also end in the top 19 to meet expectations.
Currently, it is Joe Biden who runs well ahead of both in recent New Hampshire polls.