(Bloomberg) – Jeffrey Gundlach said yet again that the U.S. economy is gorging on debt.
Echoing many of the themes from his annual "Just Markets" webcast on Tuesday, Gundlach took part in a round-table of 1
Prolific sales of junk bonds and significant growth in investment grade corporate debt, coupled with the Federal Reserve weaning the market off quantitative easing, have resulted in what the DoubleLine Capital LP boss called "an ocean of debt."
The investment manager countered President Donald Trump's claim that he's presiding over the strongest economy ever. The growth is debt-based, he said.
Gundlach's forecast for real GDP expansion this year is just 0.5 percent. Citing numbers spinning out of the USDebtClock.org website, pointed out that the US's unfunded liabilities are $ 122 trillion – or six times GDP.
"I'm not looking for a terrible economy, but artificially strong one , due to stimulus spending, ”Gundlach told the panel. "We have floated incremental debt when we are doing the opposite if the economy is so strong." [Bear]
Gundlach is coming off another year in which his Total Return Bond Fund outperformed its fixed-income peers. It returned 1.8 percent in 2018, the best performance among the 10 largest actively managed U.S. bond funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
About expects further declines in the U.S. stock market, which recently had steadied after reeling for most of December since the Great Depression. Equities will be weak early in the year and strengthen later in 2019, effectively a reversal of what happened last year, he said.
"So now we are in a market, which isn't defined as stocks being down. 20 percent. A bear market is determined by the way stocks are acting, "he said.
Rupal Bhansali, chief investment officer of International & Global Equities at Ariel Investments, picked up on Gundlach's debt theme in the Barron's cover story. Citing General Electric's woes, she was the focus of investors more on balance-sheet risk rather than whether the company could beat or miss earnings. Companies with net worth looking at, she said.
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