For some people, this Oscar season has been "fun and exciting." For others, it's been like having the stomach flu. Just when you think the runs and the projectile are up for good, a whole new round starts again. It doesn't feel like Oscar race to me. It feels like an election. Either which way, just as there will be a winner and a loser in 2020, there will be winners and losers on Sunday night. That much we know for sure. The rest of it ̵
Kris Tapley has made his predictions of what he thinks is most likely to win in all categories. In the coming days we'll be getting more predictions and maybe some people will get lucky. This is, really and truly, like betting on a horse race and honestly, even horse races have actual odds. We have Oscar "odds", but those odds are based on what people like me think and, thus, are useless to people like me. At the same time there are so many different ways this thing could go down.
In truth, we're flying blind.
Frontrunners and their Challengers:
Frontrunners: Roma (DGA), Green Book (PGA)
Challengers: Black Panther (SAG), BlacKkKlansman (stats champ for nominations, but no wins)
We ' ve done Best picture to death and there isn't a frontrunner. There just isn't. Every measure we use has been busted out. We can only go with the major guilds and maybe a little BAFTA influence. The WGA gave us two winners that are Best Picture nominees, so they're out. On paper, Roma looks like the right choice until you factor in the obvious: it's also nominated in foreign language film, and the way the Oscars go down is that no movie has ever won both Best Picture and a separate feature category. No doc, no animated, and no foreign. They have separate categories for a reason. Will they love the movie so much they put it in both? Of course they will. And it could win. I probably have to go with that if I was betting hard cold cash, but something prevents me from doing it. Maybe it's the Netflix thing too. Old timers will refuse to award that film Best Picture. And then there is the question of people NOT WATCHING IT. It's on Netflix and people still aren't watching it. Why? Because of a lot of people don't like subtitled movies. Yell all you want but it's just the fact of the matter.
When I first started my website back in 2000, the first time I ever predicted Best Picture I went to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to beat Gladiator. Gladiator won the PGA. Crouching Tiger won the DGA. Traffic won the SAG. In the end, Soderbergh won Best Director, Crouching Tiger got foreign language, and Gladiator won BP. I'm not going to make that same mistake again 20 years later! So I will be very likely to be sticking with the PGA winner.
Frontrunner: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Challenger: Christian Bale, Vice
Front runner: Glenn Close, The Wife
Challenger: Olivia Colman, The Favorite
Best Supporting Actor
Front runner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Challenger: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
There have been rumblings that Grant's publicity train is going to be too much to resist. That his endearing post-display of emotion will win over voters in the end. The only way is to release this book if you want to keep up with the Green Book. And look, if there's one thing I know for after 53 years on this planet: people are mostly assholes. By nature. We have to work hard every day. So yeah, who knows. Both performances are great, however, and we can celebrate each of them if they win. I loved both performances. Ali's is more of a leading role, more accomplished role, which makes it hard to pass up.
Conversely, Colman in The Favorite is more of a supporting role, which makes it harder to act on an actual leading role, like Glenn Close's
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunner: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Challengers: Marina de Tavira, Roma; Rachel Weisz, The Favorite
Frontrunner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Challenger: He has none, but if he did it would be Spike Lee to make history as the first black director to
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunner: Unknown – it was Green Book but since it didn't win the Writers Guild and a movie that isn't nominated for the Oscar DID? We have a lot of nominations, and won the BAFTA, that it could be the frontrunner.
Paul Schrader is the winner of the award for anyone who knows who he is might be inclined to give him an Oscar for First Reformed . Roma could sweep and win here. And Vice could win because it, too, has key nominations and might win SOMETHING. It's a crap shoot
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunner: Unknown – most believed it was BlacKkKlansman and it still might be, though the WGA's win for Can You Ever Forgive Me shows there is a possible uptick for that, especially given that Nicole Holofcener is one of the nominees.
Challengers: Most likely Can You Ever Forgive Me, If Beale Street Could Talk  Editing
Frontrunners: Either Bohemian Rhapsody or The Favorite since both won the Eddie
Challengers: Green Book which , if it wins Best Picture, supporting actor, and screenplay might also pick up editing. Vice is a real challenge here. And of course BlacKkKlansman could win, signaling that movie is finally going to start picking up wins. Essentially, this too is a crap shoot.
Frontrunner: Roma – this film is mostly cinematography, just as Gravity and Children of Men are mostly cinematography. Cuaron is, at heart, a cinematographer and, thus, this film is a celebration of that unique talent he has with the frame.
Challenger: Only one – Cold War . The Favorite could also win here.
Sound Mixing / Sound Editing
Frontrunner: Bohemian Rhapsody – after it won both the BAFTA and the CAS it seems poised Black Panther – This movie seems to be winning a bunch of oscars and picking up two sound wins would certainly take care of that.
First Man ] – the only female sound nominees are on First Man in both sound and sound editing.
Front Runner: The Favorite
Challenger: Black Panther
Front Runner: The Favorite
Challenger : Black Panther
Front runner: Black Panther
Front runner: "Shallow," A Star Is Born
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Challenger: Incredibles 2
Frontrunner: Appears to be Free Solo
Challengers: Anyone of the five, especially Minding the Gap, RGB, Hale County
Front runner: Roma
Challenger: Cold War
I have never felt less of how the Oscar race will turn out than I am this year. However, it turns out, anyone who gets it right will have to have a lucky break. There is no skill involved in figuring any of this out.