Despite low degrees of approval and Mueller probe's cloud, President Trump would easily win another term if the election was held today, according to economic models with a history of proper election of presidential candidates.
According to a report in Politico, a thriving US economy – with low unemployment rates, cheaper gas prices and rising wages – paired with the historic advantage enjoyed by current presidents, Trump is giving a strong shot at winning another term in a " landslide".
"The economy is just as amazingly strong right now and of all historical precedent, the incumbent must run away with it." Donald Luskin, head of the investment magazine TrendMacrolytics, a research firm who predicted Trump's 201
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Yale economist and pioneering researcher Ray Fair allegedly also has Trump, currently winning re-election at the back of the booming economy and his established advantage.
"Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy – and there is more or less agreement between now and the election – that has a Trump victory and with a non-trivial margin," Fair told Politico, predict that Trump would pick up 54 percent of the popular vote compared to just 46 percent for the Democrat. This would mark a significant gain from 2016 when he lost Hillary Clinton's popular vote.
Of course, the forecasts warn that much can change between now and election day 2020. If the markets suddenly begin to think, it could spell trouble for Trump – as there might be some revelations from the various studies in Trump, his business empire, and His presidential campaign in 2016.
And one of the biggest variables involves which democratic candidate Trump will eventually face next year with an ever-growing field currently jockeying for nomination. The economic models used to predict presidential winners and losers ignore things like election studies and personal characteristics – key factors when dealing with a candidate such as Trump, who inspire both loyal loyalty on the one hand and bitter opposition on the other.
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Nevertheless, the economy is seen as the most important factor in how voters choose their vote, and Luskin says there will be a big drop in economic growth and uptick in unemployment for Trump to lose. Luskin's current model – which tracks GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden and wages – has Trump gaining in the 294 election blowout.
"It would have to slow down a lot to still not be pretty good," Luskin said about the economy.