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COVID-19 Deaths in Los Angeles are expected to triple over the next few weeks – deadline

One day after Los Angeles experienced its highest number of daily COVID-19 cases ever, county health officials warned of another related rising number: deaths.

“Our daily counts over the last few days have been higher than a regular week,” said LA County Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer. “In the last 3 days, we have been over 25 deaths every day, and it is unusual. Today’s and yesterday’s rates have been higher. ”

The number of deaths related to the virus reported on Friday was 35. It may not seem like much, but multiplied over the course of a month in which more than 1,000 extra people lost. And there is not much to suggest that the daily number of deaths will soon decrease.

Coronavirus cases in California hit over 13,000 as Governor Gavin Newsom weighs even stricter new orders

On Wednesday, LA County Director of Health and Human Services, Dr. Christina Ghaly, that an increase in admissions is almost inevitable in the next two weeks given the current number of new cases and the incubation period of the virus.

Ghaly then laid out the probable end result with an equation. She noted that about 12% of all coronavirus cases end up in the hospital before continuing. “Half of them end up in the ICU,” she continued. “Two thirds of them are in a fan. Half of these will die, based on past experience. ”

So if we run Friday’s nearly record number of 4,272 coronavirus cases through this equation, the daily death toll from today’s cases in 2-3 weeks could be as high as 85 deaths a day. That’s more than three times Friday’s reported COVID-19 deaths. Again, in the space of a month, it would work to 2,500 deaths. In context, the highest number of reported daily deaths, according to Deadline Records, was 91 on July 29th.

And this projection presupposes that hospitals and ICUs will not be overwhelmed. If this happens and patients cannot get proper treatment, the number of deaths will shoot up further.

“If our rate continues to rise and our hospitalization rate is higher than July,” Ferrer said, “there is no way we can keep up. ”

By and large California reported daily deaths had risen from 55 in late October to 91 on Friday. That is a 40% increase in 3 weeks. And considering that the state hit a full-time with daily new cases Friday at. 13,005, the number of daily deaths will surely increase much, much higher.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday announced a limited Stay-at-Home order. The order requires “in general that non-essential work, movement and gatherings stop between kl. 22.00 and 05.00 in counties in the purple team. ” It takes effect Saturday night. That for each county in Southern California and 94% of the state’s population. It remains in place until December 21st.

Newsom’s office told Deadline on Thursday that the order – read it here – did not apply to workers in the entertainment industry who are on the list of important workers and thus an exception to the rule.

A separate set of restrictions from LA County takes effect Friday night. These restrictions require restaurants, wineries, breweries and non-essential businesses to close between 22 and at

Other restrictions that came into force on Friday were:

Indoor “non-essential” businesses such as shops, offices and personal care will be limited to 25% occupancy

– Outdoor service at restaurants, wineries and breweries will be limited to 50% of the maximum outdoor capacity

– Outdoor card rooms, mini golf sites, go-kart tracks and bat cages are limited to 50% of the maximum outdoor capacity

– Customers in personal care companies must make prior appointments and no services that require customers to remove their face masks can be offered

– Outdoor gatherings may be limited to a maximum of 15 people from a maximum of three households.

Further, if cases and / or admissions continue to rise, LA County officials said restaurants, wineries and breweries would also be closed for dining. That is, if the county reaches a five-day average of 4,000 or more cases, or if admissions peaked at 1,750.

As of Friday, the county had an average of three days about 4,415 cases a day, meaning the case numbers for the next two days will be closely monitored. There were 1,298 people hospitalized in the county, Ferrer said.

If the county’s five-day daily average exceeds 4,500, or if hospital admissions are 2,000, the county issues a strict “Safer-at-Home” order like the one introduced at the beginning of the pandemic. The order allows only important workers to leave the home or people who have access to important services.

“If we can not get this back under control, that is unfortunately your goal,” Ferrer said. “I still hope we do not have to go to Safer-at-Home and that we can start reversing this over the next few days.”

City News Service contributed to this report.

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