The United States has reached the lowest seven-day average of new deaths reported since last July, a CNN analysis of the data findings and a decline of 80% since January.
The study also showed that the vaccines were 64% effective against hospitalization for Covid-19 among older adults who were partially vaccinated, meaning that so far they had only one dose of vaccine.
Murphy called the study “a confirmatory report” on the effectiveness of the vaccines, which were rolled out from December.
Since the beginning of 2021, it appears that the seven-day average of people who died from Covid-19 has fallen regularly.
CNN’s analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University shows that the average number of new Covid-19 deaths in the last seven days dropped from 3,295 every day on January 28 to 1,985 on February 28 and then to 997 on March 28. On April 28, the average was 684.
The highest seven-day average of new Covid-19 deaths was recorded on January 13 and 14 at about 3,431 deaths per day.
The drop from 3,431 deaths a day on average in January to 684 in April represents a decline of 80%. The last time the seven-day average of recently reported deaths fell below 700 was briefly in early October.
Covid-19 vaccinations already have a significant impact on deaths among certain groups in the United States, such as older adults, says Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, CNN.
“If you look at populations that have been heavily vaccinated as nursing homes, for example, you will see that deaths in nursing homes have decreased, and in general, mortality has decreased over time. It really is a function of how many high-risk individuals have become vaccinated and it becomes clearer, ”said Adalja.
But while the seven-day average of new Covid-19 deaths nationwide has fallen, Adalja said it will take more time – and more shots in arms – before the general U.S. population begins to see even more of an impact from vaccinations.
“So, for example, in the pre-vaccine era, you would see cases rise, and then deaths would rise a few weeks later. And the same conversely, cases would fall, but deaths would still be high, and then deaths would start to fall two. weeks later, ”said Adalja.
“With the vaccine, it’s a little different, because if you go to a nursing home and you’ve vaccinated the entire population, it will take a while for them to be fully vaccinated and have that protection,” Adalja said. “Really, to see the full effect of the vaccines, you need it to be two weeks after the final dose of the vaccine they receive.”
Someone is considered fully vaccinated two weeks after completing the second dose of the Pfizer / BioNTech or Moderna vaccines or two weeks after completing a single dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
‘We are not halfway through yet’
Tracing the effect of vaccinations on the death rate in Covid-19 requires time for a population to be fully vaccinated first as well as time for deaths to follow infections.
“The people who die are often people who have been in the hospital for a few weeks, so you can not just look at the vaccine numbers for the given day or even for the given week and be able to draw an extrapolation to death. “I think it will take some time to see the effect of the vaccines,” said Adalja.
On Friday, the United States officially crossed 100 million people fully vaccinated. About 43.6% of the population – almost 145 million people – have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 30.5% of the population – more than 101 million people – are fully vaccinated, CDC data show.
“As more and more people are vaccinated, hospitalization and deaths will continue to decline. We are not halfway through yet,” said Murphy of Northwestern University.
“Ultimately, we have to dig out of this thing and it will take vaccinations and early treatment,” Murphy said of the pandemic. “How to control the pandemic is diagnostics, treatments, vaccinations and mitigation.”