"I suspect it will stay at zero. It's a big problem for US refiners, "said Ryan Fitzmaurice, energy strategist at Rabobank. "We really do need that heavy crude that comes from Venezuela. We're finding it difficult to source it from elsewhere."
Adds to the misery in Venezuela
While sanctions were imposed in January, Fitzmaurice said some shipments from Venezuela kept arriving in recent weeks because of leniency from US officials and the fact that the crude was already sitting on ships off the Gulf Coast
Before the sanctions, the United States was Venezuela's No. 1 oil customer. And the Venezuelan government relied on oil exports for 90% of its revenue.
Years of underinvestment from the country have caused Venezuela's oil production to fall sharply. But that situation has been exacerbated by the recent chaos and US sanctions.
"Venezuela has been a problem child for the oil market for quite some time," said Michael Tran, director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Saudi shipments down 37%
The shutdown of oil shipments from Venezuela adds to the upward pressure on energy prices. US oil has surged 40% since Christmas Eve and gasoline prices are creeping higher.
Saudi Arabia, the kingpin of OPEC, has sharply slashed oil shipments to the United States. The goal is to find oil traders and analysts that are really throttling back on output. And the United States has the most timely and accurate inventory data.
US oil imports from Saudi Arabia have plunged at 37% over the past year to 407,000 barrels per day, according to the EIA. And they are down by 68% from two years ago.
"The Saudis are targeting the US specifically," said Fitzmaurice.
Canada, Mexico have their own problems
The bad news is that US refineries can't rely on American shale oil alone. That's because not every barrel of crude is created equally. While US shale oil is a high-quality light grade, the decades-old Gulf Coast refinery system is configured to run on a healthy dose of lower quality heavy crude, the likes of which is abundant in Venezuela.
"In terms of real heavy stuff, we really don't have it," said Fitzmaurice.
Normally, the United States could turn to Canada for heavy crude. But Canada has maxed out its use of transport crude to its southern neighbor.
"Canada is maxed out," said RBC's Tran.
Mexico produces heavy crude as well. But Mexico's oil output has been in steady decline for years.
The situation has caused a strange phenomenon, where heavy crude is trading on a premium to light crude.
"Why would you pay more for something that is lower quality? Because it's becoming harder and harder to find those heavy crude barrels," said Tran.