“The risk today runs from Iowa to the Gulf Coast. Storms to the north have a higher risk of wind damage, and storms further south will pose a greater threat of tornadoes. Everyone will have dangerous lightning and even potential flooding,” CNN meteorologist Chad said. Myers.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 3 out of 5, “enhanced risk” alarm for severe weather through tonight for northern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, western Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. This risk level means “numerous severe storms (are) possible” according to the center.
Environmental conditions could “lead to rapid upscaling in growth in a broken storm band and embedded supercells as the afternoon progresses,”
Low pressure located above the central plains will contain a cold front draped to the south and east. This cold front will be the main incentive for storms as it moves east.
In the early afternoon, a series of showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop further near this front, from eastern Kansas through northeast Texas. Storm Prediction Center has this region at level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk.
The middle and late afternoon becomes more active and dangerous. This storm road will track into a more first-class environment for tornadoes and other forms of severe weather, including hail and strong winds. These storms are likely to extend from Missouri through eastern Texas and northern Louisiana.
Wednesday night, the storms move through the lower Mississippi River basin and still contain the potential for all kinds of severe weather. Intense storms could be possible as far north as Iowa and as far south as southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.
Storms will work eastward in early Thursday to the southeast, but much of the severe weather threat should subside before then.
Flash flooding is also a problem, with an expected widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches – but local amounts may be closer to 2 to 4 inches.
“Land saturation and currents have dropped significantly from where they were a week ago, but still remain above average,” said the Weather Prediction Center about current conditions in parts of Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi where flooding is possible from the storms through tonight.
Some of these storms, especially in the southern part of the line across parts of Arkansas and Kansas, could train. Storms that train mean they move over the same places for an extended period of time, making the flood risk worse.
Heavy storms remain in the forecast at the end of this week. The prediction center warns isolated severe storms could be possible from central Tennessee through southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle Thursday.
A new storm system then moves into the country, and another significant severe weather threat may be possible across the South from Friday to Saturday.
These storms can produce tornadoes along with devastating winds and hail, but the forecast remains uncertain as to timing and which areas are most at risk for these storms.